Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the Met Office and timeanddate.com converge on daytime highs of 28–30°C for Tel Aviv on June 16, aligning with the market’s leading 30°C outcome at 40.5% implied probability. Early June climatology shows typical maxima near 28–30°C under the influence of Mediterranean sea breezes and subtropical high pressure, with limited deviation expected absent a stronger continental air mass. Short-range ensembles currently indicate minimal risk of exceeding 31°C or falling below 28°C, supporting the tight clustering around 29–31°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly from NOAA and ECMWF, will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on June 16?
30°C 41%
29°C 28%
31°C 17%
32°C 5.1%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
28%
30°C
41%
31°C
17%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 41%
29°C 28%
31°C 17%
32°C 5.1%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
28%
30°C
41%
31°C
17%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the Met Office and timeanddate.com converge on daytime highs of 28–30°C for Tel Aviv on June 16, aligning with the market’s leading 30°C outcome at 40.5% implied probability. Early June climatology shows typical maxima near 28–30°C under the influence of Mediterranean sea breezes and subtropical high pressure, with limited deviation expected absent a stronger continental air mass. Short-range ensembles currently indicate minimal risk of exceeding 31°C or falling below 28°C, supporting the tight clustering around 29–31°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly from NOAA and ECMWF, will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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