**Forecast uncertainty for Munich's overnight low on August 28 centers on thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling efficiency.** Current numerical weather prediction ensembles show notable spread in minimum temperatures, with official guidance and private models projecting overnight lows ranging from roughly 13–18°C amid a pattern of building instability. Thunderstorm activity expected during the afternoon and evening can limit nocturnal temperature drops by increasing downward longwave radiation and reducing clear-sky cooling, while any breaks in cloud cover or lighter winds would allow more efficient heat loss toward the surface. Historical climatology places the average low near 12.8°C, providing a baseline, but the active synoptic setup—with southwest flow and elevated moisture—favors elevated minima unless storms clear early. Recent model runs highlight sensitivity to precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing; stronger or prolonged convection tends to support readings near or above 16–17°C, whereas calmer, partly cloudy conditions could push values toward 14°C or lower. This genuine forecast divergence, typical 48 hours out for a mid-latitude summer night, explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across bins. Traders are effectively pricing in the range of possible outcomes from ensemble members rather than converging on a single value. Updated high-resolution runs and observational trends over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.