The Sacramento-area district's post-redistricting Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee Richard Pan over independent Kevin Kiley in the November 3 general election. Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary after switching from the Republican Party, but the seat's voter registration and partisan voter index favor Democrats amid a national environment where generic ballot polling shows a Democratic advantage. A July survey indicated Pan leading Kiley narrowly with substantial undecided voters. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high independent or Republican turnout, major campaign developments, or shifts in the final weeks before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$50,822 Vol.
$50,822 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$50,822 Vol.
$50,822 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,032 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$24,791 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Sacramento-area district's post-redistricting Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee Richard Pan over independent Kevin Kiley in the November 3 general election. Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary after switching from the Republican Party, but the seat's voter registration and partisan voter index favor Democrats amid a national environment where generic ballot polling shows a Democratic advantage. A July survey indicated Pan leading Kiley narrowly with substantial undecided voters. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high independent or Republican turnout, major campaign developments, or shifts in the final weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,822End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Sacramento-area district's post-redistricting Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee Richard Pan over independent Kevin Kiley in the November 3 general election. Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary after switching from the Republican Party, but the seat's voter registration and partisan voter index favor Democrats amid a national environment where generic ballot polling shows a Democratic advantage. A July survey indicated Pan leading Kiley narrowly with substantial undecided voters. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high independent or Republican turnout, major campaign developments, or shifts in the final weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,822End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Sacramento-area district's post-redistricting Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee Richard Pan over independent Kevin Kiley in the November 3 general election. Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary after switching from the Republican Party, but the seat's voter registration and partisan voter index favor Democrats amid a national environment where generic ballot polling shows a Democratic advantage. A July survey indicated Pan leading Kiley narrowly with substantial undecided voters. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high independent or Republican turnout, major campaign developments, or shifts in the final weeks before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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