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Politics·Global Elections

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Politics·Global Elections

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Noel Thomas 48%

Seán Kyne 32.9%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.2%

Helen Ogbu 7.1%

Polymarket

$43,957 Vol.

Noel Thomas 48%

Seán Kyne 32.9%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.2%

Helen Ogbu 7.1%

Polymarket

$43,957 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,198 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,253 Vol.

33%

Niall Murphy

$1,792 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,581 Vol.

10%

Orla Nugent

$1,592 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$2,875 Vol.

7%

Denman Rooke

$1,564 Vol.

<1%

Noel Thomas

$4,982 Vol.

48%

Thomas Welby

$1,609 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,051 Vol.

5%

Mark Lohan

$2,461 Vol.

5%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).In the Galway West Dáil by-election set for May 22, trader consensus prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 32.6%, reflecting skepticism over Kyne's transfer appeal despite his slim 17%-16% first-preference lead in the May 1-5 Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll of 530 voters. Thomas benefits from anti-government sentiment fueled by 67% dissatisfaction with the coalition's fuel crisis response, where his protest involvement boosts rural and independent support in this fragmented 17-candidate PR-STV race. Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% in poll) leads the left at 6.8%, with Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%) at 10.3%; today's RTÉ Radio 1 debate and final canvassing may influence late deciders amid key local issues like housing, roads, and cost of living.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$43,957
End Date
Mar 31, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).In the Galway West Dáil by-election set for May 22, trader consensus prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 32.6%, reflecting skepticism over Kyne's transfer appeal despite his slim 17%-16% first-preference lead in the May 1-5 Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll of 530 voters. Thomas benefits from anti-government sentiment fueled by 67% dissatisfaction with the coalition's fuel crisis response, where his protest involvement boosts rural and independent support in this fragmented 17-candidate PR-STV race. Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% in poll) leads the left at 6.8%, with Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%) at 10.3%; today's RTÉ Radio 1 debate and final canvassing may influence late deciders amid key local issues like housing, roads, and cost of living.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$43,957
End Date
Mar 31, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Galway-West By-Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Noel Thomas" at 48%, followed by "Seán Kyne" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" has generated $44K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Galway-West By-Election Winner?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" is "Noel Thomas" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Seán Kyne" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.