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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 11.2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 8.9%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$340,856 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 11.2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 8.9%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$340,856 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,608 Vol.

11%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$91,044 Vol.

9%

José Mário Vaz

$22,466 Vol.

3%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,856 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,462 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$26,177 Vol.

2%

Baciro Djá

$14,723 Vol.

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,936 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,352 Vol.

2%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,488 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Recent political turbulence in Guinea-Bissau, including the November 2025 military takeover after a disputed election where Fernando Dias da Costa and Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory, has fragmented the field ahead of the December 6, 2026, vote under transitional military oversight. A subsequent August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent, shifted the system toward stronger presidential authority while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement for candidates. This environment, marked by opposition restrictions, party exclusions, and a history of coups, has produced a crowded ballot with limited consolidation behind any single contender. Traders assign the highest implied probability to Dias da Costa, a former assembly vice president and Party for Social Renewal leader backed by certain opposition alliances, followed by incumbent Embaló of Madem G15, with other figures such as José Mário Vaz trailing due to narrower bases or prior terms. Fragmentation persists amid uncertainty over alliances, military influence on the process, and potential late shifts in support.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$340,856
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Recent political turbulence in Guinea-Bissau, including the November 2025 military takeover after a disputed election where Fernando Dias da Costa and Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory, has fragmented the field ahead of the December 6, 2026, vote under transitional military oversight. A subsequent August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent, shifted the system toward stronger presidential authority while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement for candidates. This environment, marked by opposition restrictions, party exclusions, and a history of coups, has produced a crowded ballot with limited consolidation behind any single contender. Traders assign the highest implied probability to Dias da Costa, a former assembly vice president and Party for Social Renewal leader backed by certain opposition alliances, followed by incumbent Embaló of Madem G15, with other figures such as José Mário Vaz trailing due to narrower bases or prior terms. Fragmentation persists amid uncertainty over alliances, military influence on the process, and potential late shifts in support.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$340,856
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 11%, followed by "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" has generated $340.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.