Latest numerical weather model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicates a daytime maximum of 18 °C at Ankara’s official Esenboğa station today, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northerly flow, and limited solar heating across the central Anatolian plateau. This places the outcome well below the long-term mid-May climatological average of 21–22 °C while aligning with current surface observations showing temperatures peaking in the upper teens. Traders assign 93.5 % implied probability to 18 °C because afternoon verification data are unlikely to exceed this threshold under stable synoptic conditions. A rapid clearing of skies or stronger southerly advection could still push readings to 19 °C, though both outcomes carry low market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 17?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 17?
18°C 93.5%
19°C 4.9%
20°C 1.5%
21°C <1%
$48,198 Vol.
$48,198 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
94%
19°C
5%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 93.5%
19°C 4.9%
20°C 1.5%
21°C <1%
$48,198 Vol.
$48,198 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$666 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,685 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$7,264 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6,379 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$6,599 Vol.
94%
19°C
$5,015 Vol.
5%
20°C
$4,935 Vol.
1%
21°C
$6,442 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,896 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$4,125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicates a daytime maximum of 18 °C at Ankara’s official Esenboğa station today, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northerly flow, and limited solar heating across the central Anatolian plateau. This places the outcome well below the long-term mid-May climatological average of 21–22 °C while aligning with current surface observations showing temperatures peaking in the upper teens. Traders assign 93.5 % implied probability to 18 °C because afternoon verification data are unlikely to exceed this threshold under stable synoptic conditions. A rapid clearing of skies or stronger southerly advection could still push readings to 19 °C, though both outcomes carry low market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$48,198End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicates a daytime maximum of 18 °C at Ankara’s official Esenboğa station today, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northerly flow, and limited solar heating across the central Anatolian plateau. This places the outcome well below the long-term mid-May climatological average of 21–22 °C while aligning with current surface observations showing temperatures peaking in the upper teens. Traders assign 93.5 % implied probability to 18 °C because afternoon verification data are unlikely to exceed this threshold under stable synoptic conditions. A rapid clearing of skies or stronger southerly advection could still push readings to 19 °C, though both outcomes carry low market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$48,198End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACLatest numerical weather model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicates a daytime maximum of 18 °C at Ankara’s official Esenboğa station today, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northerly flow, and limited solar heating across the central Anatolian plateau. This places the outcome well below the long-term mid-May climatological average of 21–22 °C while aligning with current surface observations showing temperatures peaking in the upper teens. Traders assign 93.5 % implied probability to 18 °C because afternoon verification data are unlikely to exceed this threshold under stable synoptic conditions. A rapid clearing of skies or stronger southerly advection could still push readings to 19 °C, though both outcomes carry low market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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