Current meteorological forecast models from official agencies indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence that limits daytime heating and maintains stable atmospheric conditions across the North China Plain. This alignment with mid-May climatological averages—typically featuring highs around 25°C but tempered by cooler northerly flow—underpins the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for exactly 19°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only minor potential for 20°C if boundary-layer mixing strengthens unexpectedly, though resolution hinges on verified maximum readings at standard stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 17?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$101,824 Vol.
$101,824 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
99%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$101,824 Vol.
$101,824 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$533 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$656 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,780 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$6,602 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$8,798 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$14,358 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$27,851 Vol.
99%
20°C
$16,525 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5,796 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$8,030 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$10,937 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological forecast models from official agencies indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence that limits daytime heating and maintains stable atmospheric conditions across the North China Plain. This alignment with mid-May climatological averages—typically featuring highs around 25°C but tempered by cooler northerly flow—underpins the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for exactly 19°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only minor potential for 20°C if boundary-layer mixing strengthens unexpectedly, though resolution hinges on verified maximum readings at standard stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$101,824End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological forecast models from official agencies indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence that limits daytime heating and maintains stable atmospheric conditions across the North China Plain. This alignment with mid-May climatological averages—typically featuring highs around 25°C but tempered by cooler northerly flow—underpins the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for exactly 19°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only minor potential for 20°C if boundary-layer mixing strengthens unexpectedly, though resolution hinges on verified maximum readings at standard stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$101,824End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAACurrent meteorological forecast models from official agencies indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence that limits daytime heating and maintains stable atmospheric conditions across the North China Plain. This alignment with mid-May climatological averages—typically featuring highs around 25°C but tempered by cooler northerly flow—underpins the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for exactly 19°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only minor potential for 20°C if boundary-layer mixing strengthens unexpectedly, though resolution hinges on verified maximum readings at standard stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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