Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a daily maximum of 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, underpinning the market's near-certain 100 percent implied probability for that outcome. Current atmospheric conditions, including stable high-pressure systems over the Sichuan Basin, support gradual daytime warming without significant cloud cover or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Model consensus across regional and global runs shows limited spread, with peak readings expected in the early afternoon under typical spring humidity levels around 70 percent. Resolution hinges on official observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, where minor deviations from the forecast could only arise from unmodeled localized convection or measurement timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$65,666 Vol.
$65,666 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$65,666 Vol.
$65,666 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,745 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,055 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,973 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,948 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,230 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$6,326 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9,253 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$11,115 Vol.
100%
32°C
$8,779 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$6,899 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a daily maximum of 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, underpinning the market's near-certain 100 percent implied probability for that outcome. Current atmospheric conditions, including stable high-pressure systems over the Sichuan Basin, support gradual daytime warming without significant cloud cover or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Model consensus across regional and global runs shows limited spread, with peak readings expected in the early afternoon under typical spring humidity levels around 70 percent. Resolution hinges on official observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, where minor deviations from the forecast could only arise from unmodeled localized convection or measurement timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$65,666End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a daily maximum of 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, underpinning the market's near-certain 100 percent implied probability for that outcome. Current atmospheric conditions, including stable high-pressure systems over the Sichuan Basin, support gradual daytime warming without significant cloud cover or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Model consensus across regional and global runs shows limited spread, with peak readings expected in the early afternoon under typical spring humidity levels around 70 percent. Resolution hinges on official observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, where minor deviations from the forecast could only arise from unmodeled localized convection or measurement timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65,666End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUULatest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a daily maximum of 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, underpinning the market's near-certain 100 percent implied probability for that outcome. Current atmospheric conditions, including stable high-pressure systems over the Sichuan Basin, support gradual daytime warming without significant cloud cover or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Model consensus across regional and global runs shows limited spread, with peak readings expected in the early afternoon under typical spring humidity levels around 70 percent. Resolution hinges on official observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, where minor deviations from the forecast could only arise from unmodeled localized convection or measurement timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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