Trader consensus has converged decisively on 31°C as Chengdu’s highest temperature for May 17, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models that project a clear, stable high-pressure pattern with daytime maxima reaching precisely this level. Surface observations from official Chinese meteorological stations show current readings tracking this trajectory, supported by moderate humidity, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limit evaporative cooling in the Sichuan basin. Historical May climatology places typical maxima near 28°C, so the current setup reflects a modest warm anomaly consistent with model consensus. While localized urban heat effects or an unexpected brief shower could theoretically trim the peak by 1–2°C, the tight spread in latest model runs leaves little realistic room for deviation from the 31°C threshold before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$65,826 Vol.
$65,826 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$65,826 Vol.
$65,826 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,745 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,055 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,973 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,948 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,235 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$6,406 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9,434 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$11,148 Vol.
100%
32°C
$8,789 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$6,925 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has converged decisively on 31°C as Chengdu’s highest temperature for May 17, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models that project a clear, stable high-pressure pattern with daytime maxima reaching precisely this level. Surface observations from official Chinese meteorological stations show current readings tracking this trajectory, supported by moderate humidity, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limit evaporative cooling in the Sichuan basin. Historical May climatology places typical maxima near 28°C, so the current setup reflects a modest warm anomaly consistent with model consensus. While localized urban heat effects or an unexpected brief shower could theoretically trim the peak by 1–2°C, the tight spread in latest model runs leaves little realistic room for deviation from the 31°C threshold before final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$65,826End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has converged decisively on 31°C as Chengdu’s highest temperature for May 17, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models that project a clear, stable high-pressure pattern with daytime maxima reaching precisely this level. Surface observations from official Chinese meteorological stations show current readings tracking this trajectory, supported by moderate humidity, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limit evaporative cooling in the Sichuan basin. Historical May climatology places typical maxima near 28°C, so the current setup reflects a modest warm anomaly consistent with model consensus. While localized urban heat effects or an unexpected brief shower could theoretically trim the peak by 1–2°C, the tight spread in latest model runs leaves little realistic room for deviation from the 31°C threshold before final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65,826End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUTrader consensus has converged decisively on 31°C as Chengdu’s highest temperature for May 17, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models that project a clear, stable high-pressure pattern with daytime maxima reaching precisely this level. Surface observations from official Chinese meteorological stations show current readings tracking this trajectory, supported by moderate humidity, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limit evaporative cooling in the Sichuan basin. Historical May climatology places typical maxima near 28°C, so the current setup reflects a modest warm anomaly consistent with model consensus. While localized urban heat effects or an unexpected brief shower could theoretically trim the peak by 1–2°C, the tight spread in latest model runs leaves little realistic room for deviation from the 31°C threshold before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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