Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from NOAA shows Chicago’s May 19 high centered in the mid-to-upper 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warmer air mass under partly sunny skies and weak high pressure. This setup favors strong diurnal heating with minimal cloud interference, yet small differences in wind speed, boundary-layer moisture, and afternoon mixing can shift the peak by 2–3 °F across runs. Historical mid-May normals near 72 °F provide baseline context, while the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects ongoing model spread ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 19?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 19?
76-77°F 30%
80-81°F 25%
78-79°F 19%
84°F or higher 12%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
6%
84°F or higher
16%
76-77°F 30%
80-81°F 25%
78-79°F 19%
84°F or higher 12%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
65°F or below
$15 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$117 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$19 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$2 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$2 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$19 Vol.
15%
76-77°F
$70 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$9 Vol.
23%
80-81°F
$169 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$39 Vol.
6%
84°F or higher
$126 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from NOAA shows Chicago’s May 19 high centered in the mid-to-upper 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warmer air mass under partly sunny skies and weak high pressure. This setup favors strong diurnal heating with minimal cloud interference, yet small differences in wind speed, boundary-layer moisture, and afternoon mixing can shift the peak by 2–3 °F across runs. Historical mid-May normals near 72 °F provide baseline context, while the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects ongoing model spread ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$585End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from NOAA shows Chicago’s May 19 high centered in the mid-to-upper 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warmer air mass under partly sunny skies and weak high pressure. This setup favors strong diurnal heating with minimal cloud interference, yet small differences in wind speed, boundary-layer moisture, and afternoon mixing can shift the peak by 2–3 °F across runs. Historical mid-May normals near 72 °F provide baseline context, while the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects ongoing model spread ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$585End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDRecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from NOAA shows Chicago’s May 19 high centered in the mid-to-upper 70s, driven by southerly flow advecting a warmer air mass under partly sunny skies and weak high pressure. This setup favors strong diurnal heating with minimal cloud interference, yet small differences in wind speed, boundary-layer moisture, and afternoon mixing can shift the peak by 2–3 °F across runs. Historical mid-May normals near 72 °F provide baseline context, while the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects ongoing model spread ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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