Official meteorological observations from Istanbul's main weather stations have locked in a daily maximum of 21°C on May 15, driving the market's near-100% consensus on that outcome. This reading matches typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs range 19–23°C under moderate Mediterranean conditions and prevailing northwesterly flow that suppresses stronger southerly heat advection. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model guidance issued in the preceding days consistently projected stable temperatures near this threshold with low ensemble spread, confirming the absence of any brief warm anomaly capable of reaching 22°C. While minor microclimate variations at individual stations could theoretically alter the official high, the verified network average leaves no realistic path to a higher resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
21°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$60,251 Vol.
$60,251 Vol.
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$60,251 Vol.
$60,251 Vol.
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
$523 Vol.
No
13°C
$750 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,867 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,042 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,731 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,024 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,435 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,602 Vol.
No
20°C
$24,343 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,987 Vol.
Yes
22°C or higher
$8,948 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Istanbul's main weather stations have locked in a daily maximum of 21°C on May 15, driving the market's near-100% consensus on that outcome. This reading matches typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs range 19–23°C under moderate Mediterranean conditions and prevailing northwesterly flow that suppresses stronger southerly heat advection. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model guidance issued in the preceding days consistently projected stable temperatures near this threshold with low ensemble spread, confirming the absence of any brief warm anomaly capable of reaching 22°C. While minor microclimate variations at individual stations could theoretically alter the official high, the verified network average leaves no realistic path to a higher resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$60,251End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Istanbul's main weather stations have locked in a daily maximum of 21°C on May 15, driving the market's near-100% consensus on that outcome. This reading matches typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs range 19–23°C under moderate Mediterranean conditions and prevailing northwesterly flow that suppresses stronger southerly heat advection. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model guidance issued in the preceding days consistently projected stable temperatures near this threshold with low ensemble spread, confirming the absence of any brief warm anomaly capable of reaching 22°C. While minor microclimate variations at individual stations could theoretically alter the official high, the verified network average leaves no realistic path to a higher resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,251End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological observations from Istanbul's main weather stations have locked in a daily maximum of 21°C on May 15, driving the market's near-100% consensus on that outcome. This reading matches typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs range 19–23°C under moderate Mediterranean conditions and prevailing northwesterly flow that suppresses stronger southerly heat advection. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model guidance issued in the preceding days consistently projected stable temperatures near this threshold with low ensemble spread, confirming the absence of any brief warm anomaly capable of reaching 22°C. While minor microclimate variations at individual stations could theoretically alter the official high, the verified network average leaves no realistic path to a higher resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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