Current atmospheric conditions and ensemble forecast models indicate a peak temperature of 22°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on May 17, underpinning the dominant 96.2% market-implied probability. Regional May climatology under stable high-pressure patterns typically produces daily highs of 20–24°C, with short-range numerical weather predictions showing consistent afternoon maxima and low spread across guidance. Official monitoring confirms steady temperature profiles without significant frontal passages or warm-air advection expected today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized measurement variance at the primary station could still push the reading outside this narrow band, though model consensus and recent observational trends make such deviations improbable before daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
22°C 96.0%
23°C 3.8%
24°C or higher <1%
14°C or below <1%
$52,533 Vol.
$52,533 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
96%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
<1%
22°C 96.0%
23°C 3.8%
24°C or higher <1%
14°C or below <1%
$52,533 Vol.
$52,533 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$552 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$13,506 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,184 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,010 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,637 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,408 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,511 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,708 Vol.
96%
23°C
$4,075 Vol.
4%
24°C or higher
$10,679 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current atmospheric conditions and ensemble forecast models indicate a peak temperature of 22°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on May 17, underpinning the dominant 96.2% market-implied probability. Regional May climatology under stable high-pressure patterns typically produces daily highs of 20–24°C, with short-range numerical weather predictions showing consistent afternoon maxima and low spread across guidance. Official monitoring confirms steady temperature profiles without significant frontal passages or warm-air advection expected today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized measurement variance at the primary station could still push the reading outside this narrow band, though model consensus and recent observational trends make such deviations improbable before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$52,533End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current atmospheric conditions and ensemble forecast models indicate a peak temperature of 22°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on May 17, underpinning the dominant 96.2% market-implied probability. Regional May climatology under stable high-pressure patterns typically produces daily highs of 20–24°C, with short-range numerical weather predictions showing consistent afternoon maxima and low spread across guidance. Official monitoring confirms steady temperature profiles without significant frontal passages or warm-air advection expected today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized measurement variance at the primary station could still push the reading outside this narrow band, though model consensus and recent observational trends make such deviations improbable before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$52,533End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETCurrent atmospheric conditions and ensemble forecast models indicate a peak temperature of 22°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on May 17, underpinning the dominant 96.2% market-implied probability. Regional May climatology under stable high-pressure patterns typically produces daily highs of 20–24°C, with short-range numerical weather predictions showing consistent afternoon maxima and low spread across guidance. Official monitoring confirms steady temperature profiles without significant frontal passages or warm-air advection expected today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized measurement variance at the primary station could still push the reading outside this narrow band, though model consensus and recent observational trends make such deviations improbable before daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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