A strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and dry soils across the central plateau, is driving intense daytime heating in Madrid, pushing forecast highs well above the August climatological average of 32–33 °C. Latest guidance from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models has converged on a maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, with limited ensemble spread and only minor sensitivity to a weak Atlantic trough. Light winds are suppressing vertical mixing and allowing surface temperatures to climb rapidly under prolonged insolation. These conditions align with an ongoing heatwave pattern, stabilizing trader sentiment around the 39 °C outcome at 74 % implied probability and 40 °C at 25 %. Official forecasts issued in the past 48 hours have reinforced this narrow range ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
39°C 70%
40°C 28%
38°C 5%
37°C <1%
$42,924 Vol.
$42,924 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
1%
38°C
5%
39°C
70%
40°C
28%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 70%
40°C 28%
38°C 5%
37°C <1%
$42,924 Vol.
$42,924 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
$2,338 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$3,773 Vol.
1%
38°C
$4,573 Vol.
5%
39°C
$6,678 Vol.
70%
40°C
$16,014 Vol.
28%
41°C
$4,586 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$1,132 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$823 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$1,063 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and dry soils across the central plateau, is driving intense daytime heating in Madrid, pushing forecast highs well above the August climatological average of 32–33 °C. Latest guidance from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models has converged on a maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, with limited ensemble spread and only minor sensitivity to a weak Atlantic trough. Light winds are suppressing vertical mixing and allowing surface temperatures to climb rapidly under prolonged insolation. These conditions align with an ongoing heatwave pattern, stabilizing trader sentiment around the 39 °C outcome at 74 % implied probability and 40 °C at 25 %. Official forecasts issued in the past 48 hours have reinforced this narrow range ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$42,924End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and dry soils across the central plateau, is driving intense daytime heating in Madrid, pushing forecast highs well above the August climatological average of 32–33 °C. Latest guidance from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models has converged on a maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, with limited ensemble spread and only minor sensitivity to a weak Atlantic trough. Light winds are suppressing vertical mixing and allowing surface temperatures to climb rapidly under prolonged insolation. These conditions align with an ongoing heatwave pattern, stabilizing trader sentiment around the 39 °C outcome at 74 % implied probability and 40 °C at 25 %. Official forecasts issued in the past 48 hours have reinforced this narrow range ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,924End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and dry soils across the central plateau, is driving intense daytime heating in Madrid, pushing forecast highs well above the August climatological average of 32–33 °C. Latest guidance from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models has converged on a maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, with limited ensemble spread and only minor sensitivity to a weak Atlantic trough. Light winds are suppressing vertical mixing and allowing surface temperatures to climb rapidly under prolonged insolation. These conditions align with an ongoing heatwave pattern, stabilizing trader sentiment around the 39 °C outcome at 74 % implied probability and 40 °C at 25 %. Official forecasts issued in the past 48 hours have reinforced this narrow range ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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