Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time observations from Spain’s meteorological agency through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
22°C 59%
23°C 26%
21°C 15%
24°C 4.3%
$29,616 Vol.
$29,616 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
15%
22°C
59%
23°C
26%
24°C
4%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 59%
23°C 26%
21°C 15%
24°C 4.3%
$29,616 Vol.
$29,616 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,646 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,243 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,489 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,813 Vol.
15%
22°C
$3,951 Vol.
59%
23°C
$3,308 Vol.
26%
24°C
$2,695 Vol.
4%
25°C
$1,756 Vol.
1%
26°C
$1,235 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$931 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time observations from Spain’s meteorological agency through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$29,616End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time observations from Spain’s meteorological agency through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,616End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time observations from Spain’s meteorological agency through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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