Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency converge on a daytime maximum of 22°C in Madrid on May 17, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge, light northerly winds, and mostly clear skies that limit afternoon heating. This narrow uncertainty band—typical for short-range temperature predictions in central Spain during mid-May—explains the overwhelming market consensus around 22°C, with only marginal probabilities assigned to adjacent thresholds. Historical climatology shows May highs averaging near 21–24°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as low-probability outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the Retiro station; any unexpected increase in cloud cover or a stronger sea-breeze intrusion could still nudge readings slightly higher or lower before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
22°C 98.3%
23°C 1.4%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$46,695 Vol.
$46,695 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
98%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 98.3%
23°C 1.4%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$46,695 Vol.
$46,695 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,373 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,601 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$7,256 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$9,516 Vol.
98%
23°C
$8,395 Vol.
1%
24°C
$4,456 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,096 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$1,214 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency converge on a daytime maximum of 22°C in Madrid on May 17, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge, light northerly winds, and mostly clear skies that limit afternoon heating. This narrow uncertainty band—typical for short-range temperature predictions in central Spain during mid-May—explains the overwhelming market consensus around 22°C, with only marginal probabilities assigned to adjacent thresholds. Historical climatology shows May highs averaging near 21–24°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as low-probability outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the Retiro station; any unexpected increase in cloud cover or a stronger sea-breeze intrusion could still nudge readings slightly higher or lower before the day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$46,695End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency converge on a daytime maximum of 22°C in Madrid on May 17, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge, light northerly winds, and mostly clear skies that limit afternoon heating. This narrow uncertainty band—typical for short-range temperature predictions in central Spain during mid-May—explains the overwhelming market consensus around 22°C, with only marginal probabilities assigned to adjacent thresholds. Historical climatology shows May highs averaging near 21–24°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as low-probability outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the Retiro station; any unexpected increase in cloud cover or a stronger sea-breeze intrusion could still nudge readings slightly higher or lower before the day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$46,695End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDCurrent forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency converge on a daytime maximum of 22°C in Madrid on May 17, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge, light northerly winds, and mostly clear skies that limit afternoon heating. This narrow uncertainty band—typical for short-range temperature predictions in central Spain during mid-May—explains the overwhelming market consensus around 22°C, with only marginal probabilities assigned to adjacent thresholds. Historical climatology shows May highs averaging near 21–24°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as low-probability outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the Retiro station; any unexpected increase in cloud cover or a stronger sea-breeze intrusion could still nudge readings slightly higher or lower before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions