Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on May 18, positioning 33–35°C as the leading implied probabilities by moderating peak solar heating during the seasonal dry-period maximum. Historical May averages hover near 33–34°C, yet localized convective cooling and variable humidity frequently cap extremes below 36°C, consistent with recent daily observations showing highs at or just above the mean. Traders weigh these atmospheric dynamics against the risk of clearer skies allowing a brief surge, though model consensus favors the central range ahead of the final official station reading tomorrow evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 18?
34°C 35%
33°C 27%
35°C 23%
36°C 8.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
6%
33°C
27%
34°C
35%
35°C
23%
36°C
9%
37°C
1%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 35%
33°C 27%
35°C 23%
36°C 8.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
$876 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$108 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$827 Vol.
1%
32°C
$668 Vol.
6%
33°C
$632 Vol.
27%
34°C
$257 Vol.
35%
35°C
$208 Vol.
23%
36°C
$566 Vol.
9%
37°C
$152 Vol.
1%
38°C
$338 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$299 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on May 18, positioning 33–35°C as the leading implied probabilities by moderating peak solar heating during the seasonal dry-period maximum. Historical May averages hover near 33–34°C, yet localized convective cooling and variable humidity frequently cap extremes below 36°C, consistent with recent daily observations showing highs at or just above the mean. Traders weigh these atmospheric dynamics against the risk of clearer skies allowing a brief surge, though model consensus favors the central range ahead of the final official station reading tomorrow evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$4,932End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on May 18, positioning 33–35°C as the leading implied probabilities by moderating peak solar heating during the seasonal dry-period maximum. Historical May averages hover near 33–34°C, yet localized convective cooling and variable humidity frequently cap extremes below 36°C, consistent with recent daily observations showing highs at or just above the mean. Traders weigh these atmospheric dynamics against the risk of clearer skies allowing a brief surge, though model consensus favors the central range ahead of the final official station reading tomorrow evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,932End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on May 18, positioning 33–35°C as the leading implied probabilities by moderating peak solar heating during the seasonal dry-period maximum. Historical May averages hover near 33–34°C, yet localized convective cooling and variable humidity frequently cap extremes below 36°C, consistent with recent daily observations showing highs at or just above the mean. Traders weigh these atmospheric dynamics against the risk of clearer skies allowing a brief surge, though model consensus favors the central range ahead of the final official station reading tomorrow evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions