Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 21°C daily high in Milan today at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs from European models showing peak surface temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under a building high-pressure ridge. Recent observational data confirm a gradual warming trend from the cooler 13°C reading two days prior, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting further intensification while maintaining moderate insolation. Historical May climatology for the Po Valley places typical highs between 18°C and 23°C, so current conditions align closely with the central tendency without pushing toward extremes. Key resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Milan Linate by the end of the 24-hour period, with any late-afternoon model update potentially shifting sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 17?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 17?
21°C 61%
20°C 41%
22°C 5%
23°C <1%
$29,345 Vol.
$29,345 Vol.
May 17, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
41%
21°C
61%
22°C
5%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 61%
20°C 41%
22°C 5%
23°C <1%
$29,345 Vol.
$29,345 Vol.
May 17, 2026
15°C or below
$405 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$472 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,516 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,552 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,910 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$4,789 Vol.
41%
21°C
$3,008 Vol.
61%
22°C
$3,821 Vol.
5%
23°C
$3,763 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,351 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,653 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 21°C daily high in Milan today at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs from European models showing peak surface temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under a building high-pressure ridge. Recent observational data confirm a gradual warming trend from the cooler 13°C reading two days prior, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting further intensification while maintaining moderate insolation. Historical May climatology for the Po Valley places typical highs between 18°C and 23°C, so current conditions align closely with the central tendency without pushing toward extremes. Key resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Milan Linate by the end of the 24-hour period, with any late-afternoon model update potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$29,345End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 21°C daily high in Milan today at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs from European models showing peak surface temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under a building high-pressure ridge. Recent observational data confirm a gradual warming trend from the cooler 13°C reading two days prior, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting further intensification while maintaining moderate insolation. Historical May climatology for the Po Valley places typical highs between 18°C and 23°C, so current conditions align closely with the central tendency without pushing toward extremes. Key resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Milan Linate by the end of the 24-hour period, with any late-afternoon model update potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,345End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 21°C daily high in Milan today at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs from European models showing peak surface temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under a building high-pressure ridge. Recent observational data confirm a gradual warming trend from the cooler 13°C reading two days prior, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting further intensification while maintaining moderate insolation. Historical May climatology for the Po Valley places typical highs between 18°C and 23°C, so current conditions align closely with the central tendency without pushing toward extremes. Key resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Milan Linate by the end of the 24-hour period, with any late-afternoon model update potentially shifting sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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