Recent European model guidance, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover. These forecasts align closely with the May climatological average high of 22°C while highlighting sensitivity to minor variations in daytime solar heating and boundary-layer moisture. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20°C and 21°C because small model disagreements or late-day changes could shift the peak across those thresholds. Official observations from Malpensa station tomorrow will resolve the market, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 18?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 18?
21°C 35%
20°C 25%
19°C 24%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
24%
20°C
25%
21°C
35%
22°C
13%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 35%
20°C 25%
19°C 24%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
16°C or below
$501 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$776 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,097 Vol.
4%
19°C
$1,082 Vol.
24%
20°C
$1,138 Vol.
25%
21°C
$784 Vol.
35%
22°C
$963 Vol.
13%
23°C
$963 Vol.
2%
24°C
$763 Vol.
1%
25°C
$395 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$419 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent European model guidance, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover. These forecasts align closely with the May climatological average high of 22°C while highlighting sensitivity to minor variations in daytime solar heating and boundary-layer moisture. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20°C and 21°C because small model disagreements or late-day changes could shift the peak across those thresholds. Official observations from Malpensa station tomorrow will resolve the market, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$9,871End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent European model guidance, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover. These forecasts align closely with the May climatological average high of 22°C while highlighting sensitivity to minor variations in daytime solar heating and boundary-layer moisture. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20°C and 21°C because small model disagreements or late-day changes could shift the peak across those thresholds. Official observations from Malpensa station tomorrow will resolve the market, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,871End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCRecent European model guidance, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover. These forecasts align closely with the May climatological average high of 22°C while highlighting sensitivity to minor variations in daytime solar heating and boundary-layer moisture. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20°C and 21°C because small model disagreements or late-day changes could shift the peak across those thresholds. Official observations from Malpensa station tomorrow will resolve the market, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions