Recent forecast models from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show a high-pressure ridge directing warmer continental air toward Moscow, supporting a daily maximum near 26°C on May 17. This setup features light southerly winds, reduced cloud cover, and daytime heating that exceeds the mid-May climatological average of about 18°C at the VDNKh station. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for 26°C reflects strong agreement across these runs, with minimal spread in boundary-layer mixing and radiation forecasts. Outcomes above 27°C carry only 5% combined odds due to limited potential for stronger subsidence or advection. A shift in short-term model guidance or unexpected increase in cloud cover could still alter the final peak before official resolution tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
26°C 93.5%
27°C 5.5%
28°C or higher 2.5%
18°C or below <1%
$39,422 Vol.
$39,422 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
94%
27°C
6%
28°C or higher
2%
26°C 93.5%
27°C 5.5%
28°C or higher 2.5%
18°C or below <1%
$39,422 Vol.
$39,422 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,508 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,344 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,934 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,251 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,329 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,517 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$6,127 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,631 Vol.
94%
27°C
$4,320 Vol.
6%
28°C or higher
$4,836 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show a high-pressure ridge directing warmer continental air toward Moscow, supporting a daily maximum near 26°C on May 17. This setup features light southerly winds, reduced cloud cover, and daytime heating that exceeds the mid-May climatological average of about 18°C at the VDNKh station. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for 26°C reflects strong agreement across these runs, with minimal spread in boundary-layer mixing and radiation forecasts. Outcomes above 27°C carry only 5% combined odds due to limited potential for stronger subsidence or advection. A shift in short-term model guidance or unexpected increase in cloud cover could still alter the final peak before official resolution tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$39,422End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show a high-pressure ridge directing warmer continental air toward Moscow, supporting a daily maximum near 26°C on May 17. This setup features light southerly winds, reduced cloud cover, and daytime heating that exceeds the mid-May climatological average of about 18°C at the VDNKh station. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for 26°C reflects strong agreement across these runs, with minimal spread in boundary-layer mixing and radiation forecasts. Outcomes above 27°C carry only 5% combined odds due to limited potential for stronger subsidence or advection. A shift in short-term model guidance or unexpected increase in cloud cover could still alter the final peak before official resolution tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,422End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecast models from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show a high-pressure ridge directing warmer continental air toward Moscow, supporting a daily maximum near 26°C on May 17. This setup features light southerly winds, reduced cloud cover, and daytime heating that exceeds the mid-May climatological average of about 18°C at the VDNKh station. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for 26°C reflects strong agreement across these runs, with minimal spread in boundary-layer mixing and radiation forecasts. Outcomes above 27°C carry only 5% combined odds due to limited potential for stronger subsidence or advection. A shift in short-term model guidance or unexpected increase in cloud cover could still alter the final peak before official resolution tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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