Recent ensemble forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models show a high-pressure ridge advecting warmer continental air into Moscow, with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies supporting daytime heating to a peak near 26°C. This places the market-implied odds for 26°C at 93.5 percent, well above the May climatological average high of roughly 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper bound, limiting probabilities for 27°C or higher to just 5.9 percent. Updated short-range runs tonight could still shift the exact maximum if boundary-layer mixing or unexpected cloud development alters the afternoon energy balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
26°C 96.5%
27°C 3.1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$39,812 Vol.
$39,812 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
97%
27°C
3%
28°C or higher
1%
26°C 96.5%
27°C 3.1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$39,812 Vol.
$39,812 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,508 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,344 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,934 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,251 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,329 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,517 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$6,133 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,962 Vol.
97%
27°C
$4,375 Vol.
3%
28°C or higher
$5,127 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models show a high-pressure ridge advecting warmer continental air into Moscow, with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies supporting daytime heating to a peak near 26°C. This places the market-implied odds for 26°C at 93.5 percent, well above the May climatological average high of roughly 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper bound, limiting probabilities for 27°C or higher to just 5.9 percent. Updated short-range runs tonight could still shift the exact maximum if boundary-layer mixing or unexpected cloud development alters the afternoon energy balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$39,812End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models show a high-pressure ridge advecting warmer continental air into Moscow, with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies supporting daytime heating to a peak near 26°C. This places the market-implied odds for 26°C at 93.5 percent, well above the May climatological average high of roughly 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper bound, limiting probabilities for 27°C or higher to just 5.9 percent. Updated short-range runs tonight could still shift the exact maximum if boundary-layer mixing or unexpected cloud development alters the afternoon energy balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,812End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models show a high-pressure ridge advecting warmer continental air into Moscow, with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies supporting daytime heating to a peak near 26°C. This places the market-implied odds for 26°C at 93.5 percent, well above the May climatological average high of roughly 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper bound, limiting probabilities for 27°C or higher to just 5.9 percent. Updated short-range runs tonight could still shift the exact maximum if boundary-layer mixing or unexpected cloud development alters the afternoon energy balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions