Current forecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 16°C at Munich Airport, the official resolution station, under moderate high pressure and light northerly flow. Partial cloud cover is limiting daytime heating while boundary-layer mixing keeps afternoon peaks within the 15–17°C range, which explains why the 16°C outcome holds a narrow lead at 43% implied probability followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%. These tightly matched probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty in exact cloud timing and mixing depth rather than a firm consensus, with 17°C still carrying 18.5% odds if clearer conditions develop before peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 17?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 17?
16°C 48%
15°C 34%
17°C 19%
18°C 2.6%
$19,677 Vol.
$19,677 Vol.
May 17, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
34%
16°C
48%
17°C
19%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 48%
15°C 34%
17°C 19%
18°C 2.6%
$19,677 Vol.
$19,677 Vol.
May 17, 2026
11°C or below
$562 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,309 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,238 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,816 Vol.
2%
15°C
$2,587 Vol.
34%
16°C
$2,134 Vol.
48%
17°C
$2,321 Vol.
19%
18°C
$1,539 Vol.
3%
19°C
$1,375 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,474 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$2,426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 16°C at Munich Airport, the official resolution station, under moderate high pressure and light northerly flow. Partial cloud cover is limiting daytime heating while boundary-layer mixing keeps afternoon peaks within the 15–17°C range, which explains why the 16°C outcome holds a narrow lead at 43% implied probability followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%. These tightly matched probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty in exact cloud timing and mixing depth rather than a firm consensus, with 17°C still carrying 18.5% odds if clearer conditions develop before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$19,677End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 16°C at Munich Airport, the official resolution station, under moderate high pressure and light northerly flow. Partial cloud cover is limiting daytime heating while boundary-layer mixing keeps afternoon peaks within the 15–17°C range, which explains why the 16°C outcome holds a narrow lead at 43% implied probability followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%. These tightly matched probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty in exact cloud timing and mixing depth rather than a firm consensus, with 17°C still carrying 18.5% odds if clearer conditions develop before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,677End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMCurrent forecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 16°C at Munich Airport, the official resolution station, under moderate high pressure and light northerly flow. Partial cloud cover is limiting daytime heating while boundary-layer mixing keeps afternoon peaks within the 15–17°C range, which explains why the 16°C outcome holds a narrow lead at 43% implied probability followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%. These tightly matched probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty in exact cloud timing and mixing depth rather than a firm consensus, with 17°C still carrying 18.5% odds if clearer conditions develop before peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions