Official INMET observational data from São Paulo stations, including Mirante and Congonhas, confirm the highest temperature reached exactly 20°C on May 12, 2026, aligning with trader consensus at near-certainty. This outcome stems from persistent cold advection following the season's first intense polar air mass, which suppressed daytime heating through widespread cloud cover and northerly steering patterns, as forecasted by INMET and CPTEC/INPE models. Typical May highs average 22–23°C, but analogs from prior cold snaps support this positioning. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data corrections from manual audits or inter-station discrepancies, though automated records provide robust evidence amid low model uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 12?
20°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$77,679 Vol.
$77,679 Vol.
May 12, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$77,679 Vol.
$77,679 Vol.
May 12, 2026
19°C or below
$25,870 Vol.
No
20°C
$10,984 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$5,530 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,360 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,293 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,626 Vol.
No
25°C
$6,135 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,751 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,070 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,766 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$3,294 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official INMET observational data from São Paulo stations, including Mirante and Congonhas, confirm the highest temperature reached exactly 20°C on May 12, 2026, aligning with trader consensus at near-certainty. This outcome stems from persistent cold advection following the season's first intense polar air mass, which suppressed daytime heating through widespread cloud cover and northerly steering patterns, as forecasted by INMET and CPTEC/INPE models. Typical May highs average 22–23°C, but analogs from prior cold snaps support this positioning. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data corrections from manual audits or inter-station discrepancies, though automated records provide robust evidence amid low model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 10, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$77,679End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official INMET observational data from São Paulo stations, including Mirante and Congonhas, confirm the highest temperature reached exactly 20°C on May 12, 2026, aligning with trader consensus at near-certainty. This outcome stems from persistent cold advection following the season's first intense polar air mass, which suppressed daytime heating through widespread cloud cover and northerly steering patterns, as forecasted by INMET and CPTEC/INPE models. Typical May highs average 22–23°C, but analogs from prior cold snaps support this positioning. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data corrections from manual audits or inter-station discrepancies, though automated records provide robust evidence amid low model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$77,679End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official INMET observational data from São Paulo stations, including Mirante and Congonhas, confirm the highest temperature reached exactly 20°C on May 12, 2026, aligning with trader consensus at near-certainty. This outcome stems from persistent cold advection following the season's first intense polar air mass, which suppressed daytime heating through widespread cloud cover and northerly steering patterns, as forecasted by INMET and CPTEC/INPE models. Typical May highs average 22–23°C, but analogs from prior cold snaps support this positioning. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data corrections from manual audits or inter-station discrepancies, though automated records provide robust evidence amid low model uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions