Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show a daily maximum near 27°C in Shanghai under persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This setup places the peak squarely within the 27°C bin, well above the mid-May climatological normal of 23–25°C recorded at the Xujiahui Observatory. With the market assigning 99.9% implied probability to 27°C, traders reflect high confidence in the consensus model runs and minimal cloud cover expected through the afternoon. Final resolution hinges on the official observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; any last-hour shift in wind direction or unexpected moisture influx could nudge the reading one degree in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
27°C 99.8%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$132,379 Vol.
$132,379 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.8%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$132,379 Vol.
$132,379 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$2,126 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$6,104 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$7,382 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,506 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$18,566 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$18,069 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$24,280 Vol.
100%
28°C
$14,151 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$14,394 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$11,963 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$6,838 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show a daily maximum near 27°C in Shanghai under persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This setup places the peak squarely within the 27°C bin, well above the mid-May climatological normal of 23–25°C recorded at the Xujiahui Observatory. With the market assigning 99.9% implied probability to 27°C, traders reflect high confidence in the consensus model runs and minimal cloud cover expected through the afternoon. Final resolution hinges on the official observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; any last-hour shift in wind direction or unexpected moisture influx could nudge the reading one degree in either direction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$132,379End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show a daily maximum near 27°C in Shanghai under persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This setup places the peak squarely within the 27°C bin, well above the mid-May climatological normal of 23–25°C recorded at the Xujiahui Observatory. With the market assigning 99.9% implied probability to 27°C, traders reflect high confidence in the consensus model runs and minimal cloud cover expected through the afternoon. Final resolution hinges on the official observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; any last-hour shift in wind direction or unexpected moisture influx could nudge the reading one degree in either direction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$132,379End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDEnsemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show a daily maximum near 27°C in Shanghai under persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This setup places the peak squarely within the 27°C bin, well above the mid-May climatological normal of 23–25°C recorded at the Xujiahui Observatory. With the market assigning 99.9% implied probability to 27°C, traders reflect high confidence in the consensus model runs and minimal cloud cover expected through the afternoon. Final resolution hinges on the official observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; any last-hour shift in wind direction or unexpected moisture influx could nudge the reading one degree in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions