Recent meteorological models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo on track for a daily maximum of 28°C under stable springtime high pressure, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover that permits sufficient daytime heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs range 24–27°C before the onset of the rainy season. The market-implied odds reflect strong consensus across ensemble forecasts with limited spread in temperature outcomes. Only a late-arriving cold front or denser cloud buildup would realistically cap the peak below 28°C, while stronger insolation remains improbable given the current synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 96.5%
29°C 3.0%
30°C or higher 1.1%
20°C or below <1%
$65,913 Vol.
$65,913 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
97%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
28°C 96.5%
29°C 3.0%
30°C or higher 1.1%
20°C or below <1%
$65,913 Vol.
$65,913 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,560 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$9,990 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$7,137 Vol.
97%
29°C
$5,074 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$8,015 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo on track for a daily maximum of 28°C under stable springtime high pressure, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover that permits sufficient daytime heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs range 24–27°C before the onset of the rainy season. The market-implied odds reflect strong consensus across ensemble forecasts with limited spread in temperature outcomes. Only a late-arriving cold front or denser cloud buildup would realistically cap the peak below 28°C, while stronger insolation remains improbable given the current synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$65,913End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo on track for a daily maximum of 28°C under stable springtime high pressure, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover that permits sufficient daytime heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs range 24–27°C before the onset of the rainy season. The market-implied odds reflect strong consensus across ensemble forecasts with limited spread in temperature outcomes. Only a late-arriving cold front or denser cloud buildup would realistically cap the peak below 28°C, while stronger insolation remains improbable given the current synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65,913End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent meteorological models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo on track for a daily maximum of 28°C under stable springtime high pressure, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover that permits sufficient daytime heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs range 24–27°C before the onset of the rainy season. The market-implied odds reflect strong consensus across ensemble forecasts with limited spread in temperature outcomes. Only a late-arriving cold front or denser cloud buildup would realistically cap the peak below 28°C, while stronger insolation remains improbable given the current synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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