Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts converge on a maximum temperature of 28°C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station for May 17, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, clear skies, and strong afternoon solar insolation across the Kanto Plain. This setup aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where daytime heating often peaks near 27–29°C under stable conditions. The market-implied odds exceeding 99% for exactly 28°C reflect this model consensus and the narrow window before the daily high is finalized. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or a rapid shift in steering flow could realistically push readings to 29°C or higher, though latest soundings show limited potential for such deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 99.9%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$87,122 Vol.
$87,122 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.9%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$87,122 Vol.
$87,122 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$3,024 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,893 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,821 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,530 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$19,720 Vol.
100%
29°C
$10,530 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$9,833 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts converge on a maximum temperature of 28°C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station for May 17, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, clear skies, and strong afternoon solar insolation across the Kanto Plain. This setup aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where daytime heating often peaks near 27–29°C under stable conditions. The market-implied odds exceeding 99% for exactly 28°C reflect this model consensus and the narrow window before the daily high is finalized. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or a rapid shift in steering flow could realistically push readings to 29°C or higher, though latest soundings show limited potential for such deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$87,122End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts converge on a maximum temperature of 28°C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station for May 17, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, clear skies, and strong afternoon solar insolation across the Kanto Plain. This setup aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where daytime heating often peaks near 27–29°C under stable conditions. The market-implied odds exceeding 99% for exactly 28°C reflect this model consensus and the narrow window before the daily high is finalized. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or a rapid shift in steering flow could realistically push readings to 29°C or higher, though latest soundings show limited potential for such deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$87,122End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts converge on a maximum temperature of 28°C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station for May 17, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, clear skies, and strong afternoon solar insolation across the Kanto Plain. This setup aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where daytime heating often peaks near 27–29°C under stable conditions. The market-implied odds exceeding 99% for exactly 28°C reflect this model consensus and the narrow window before the daily high is finalized. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or a rapid shift in steering flow could realistically push readings to 29°C or higher, though latest soundings show limited potential for such deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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