Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a warming trend over the Kanto region, driven by southerly flow and clear skies that favor daytime heating. This setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 28°C or higher at 77.5 percent, with 27°C holding 18.5 percent. Historical mid-May highs in Tokyo average near 23–25°C, yet the current ridge pattern and low dew points align with recent days that already exceeded seasonal norms. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near 26–28°C, while noting that any increase in cloud cover or shift in steering winds could cap readings at 27°C. Updated JMA briefings and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalysts ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 74%
27°C 19%
26°C 4.0%
25°C <1%
NEW
$23,877 Vol.
NEW
$23,877 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
19%
28°C or higher
74%
28°C or higher 74%
27°C 19%
26°C 4.0%
25°C <1%
NEW
$23,877 Vol.
NEW
$23,877 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$2,106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,368 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,229 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,757 Vol.
1%
26°C
$2,693 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,954 Vol.
19%
28°C or higher
$3,103 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a warming trend over the Kanto region, driven by southerly flow and clear skies that favor daytime heating. This setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 28°C or higher at 77.5 percent, with 27°C holding 18.5 percent. Historical mid-May highs in Tokyo average near 23–25°C, yet the current ridge pattern and low dew points align with recent days that already exceeded seasonal norms. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near 26–28°C, while noting that any increase in cloud cover or shift in steering winds could cap readings at 27°C. Updated JMA briefings and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalysts ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$23,877End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a warming trend over the Kanto region, driven by southerly flow and clear skies that favor daytime heating. This setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 28°C or higher at 77.5 percent, with 27°C holding 18.5 percent. Historical mid-May highs in Tokyo average near 23–25°C, yet the current ridge pattern and low dew points align with recent days that already exceeded seasonal norms. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near 26–28°C, while noting that any increase in cloud cover or shift in steering winds could cap readings at 27°C. Updated JMA briefings and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalysts ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,877End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a warming trend over the Kanto region, driven by southerly flow and clear skies that favor daytime heating. This setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 28°C or higher at 77.5 percent, with 27°C holding 18.5 percent. Historical mid-May highs in Tokyo average near 23–25°C, yet the current ridge pattern and low dew points align with recent days that already exceeded seasonal norms. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near 26–28°C, while noting that any increase in cloud cover or shift in steering winds could cap readings at 27°C. Updated JMA briefings and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalysts ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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