US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 16 cessation of hostilities, with delegations scheduled to reconvene in Washington to address full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, Hezbollah disarmament, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. Israeli forces have continued airstrikes, expanded ground operations in strategic areas, and issued evacuation orders for villages near the Blue Line, actions that Lebanese officials and Hezbollah-linked lawmakers link to stalled progress on withdrawal commitments. These developments occur against the backdrop of UNIFIL’s extended mandate through December 2026 and Lebanese parliamentary statements conditioning direct negotiations on prior Israeli pullback, leaving traders focused on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome ongoing military enforcement and security concerns in the coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,543,433 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
7%
$1,543,433 Vol.
May 31
$1,237,290 Vol.
1%
June 30
$231,136 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 16 cessation of hostilities, with delegations scheduled to reconvene in Washington to address full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, Hezbollah disarmament, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. Israeli forces have continued airstrikes, expanded ground operations in strategic areas, and issued evacuation orders for villages near the Blue Line, actions that Lebanese officials and Hezbollah-linked lawmakers link to stalled progress on withdrawal commitments. These developments occur against the backdrop of UNIFIL’s extended mandate through December 2026 and Lebanese parliamentary statements conditioning direct negotiations on prior Israeli pullback, leaving traders focused on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome ongoing military enforcement and security concerns in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,543,433End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 16 cessation of hostilities, with delegations scheduled to reconvene in Washington to address full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, Hezbollah disarmament, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. Israeli forces have continued airstrikes, expanded ground operations in strategic areas, and issued evacuation orders for villages near the Blue Line, actions that Lebanese officials and Hezbollah-linked lawmakers link to stalled progress on withdrawal commitments. These developments occur against the backdrop of UNIFIL’s extended mandate through December 2026 and Lebanese parliamentary statements conditioning direct negotiations on prior Israeli pullback, leaving traders focused on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome ongoing military enforcement and security concerns in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,543,433End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 16 cessation of hostilities, with delegations scheduled to reconvene in Washington to address full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, Hezbollah disarmament, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. Israeli forces have continued airstrikes, expanded ground operations in strategic areas, and issued evacuation orders for villages near the Blue Line, actions that Lebanese officials and Hezbollah-linked lawmakers link to stalled progress on withdrawal commitments. These developments occur against the backdrop of UNIFIL’s extended mandate through December 2026 and Lebanese parliamentary statements conditioning direct negotiations on prior Israeli pullback, leaving traders focused on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome ongoing military enforcement and security concerns in the coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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