The market's near-certain pricing on 23°C as Hong Kong's lowest temperature for May 17 reflects official minimum readings from the Hong Kong Observatory's urban and airport stations, which recorded exactly 23.0°C overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and clear skies. This outcome matches long-term May climatology for the region, where nighttime radiative cooling is limited by high humidity and the urban heat island, keeping minima typically between 22–25°C. Traders appear to have anchored on the real-time observational data rather than model guidance, which showed little spread. While rare post-publication quality-control adjustments by the Observatory could theoretically shift the figure, such revisions have been negligible for daily temperature records in recent years.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
23°C 55.2%
18°C or below 44.0%
24°C 41.6%
28°C or higher 1.3%
$29,271 Vol.
$29,271 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
44%
19°C
1%
20°C
44%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
55%
24°C
42%
25°C
-
26°C
<1%
27°C
-
28°C or higher
1%
23°C 55.2%
18°C or below 44.0%
24°C 41.6%
28°C or higher 1.3%
$29,271 Vol.
$29,271 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,419 Vol.
44%
19°C
$1,135 Vol.
1%
20°C
$810 Vol.
44%
21°C
$1,816 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,815 Vol.
1%
23°C
$6,443 Vol.
55%
24°C
$7,857 Vol.
42%
25°C
$2,338 Vol.
-
26°C
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$941 Vol.
-
28°C or higher
$2,416 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's near-certain pricing on 23°C as Hong Kong's lowest temperature for May 17 reflects official minimum readings from the Hong Kong Observatory's urban and airport stations, which recorded exactly 23.0°C overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and clear skies. This outcome matches long-term May climatology for the region, where nighttime radiative cooling is limited by high humidity and the urban heat island, keeping minima typically between 22–25°C. Traders appear to have anchored on the real-time observational data rather than model guidance, which showed little spread. While rare post-publication quality-control adjustments by the Observatory could theoretically shift the figure, such revisions have been negligible for daily temperature records in recent years.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$29,271End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's near-certain pricing on 23°C as Hong Kong's lowest temperature for May 17 reflects official minimum readings from the Hong Kong Observatory's urban and airport stations, which recorded exactly 23.0°C overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and clear skies. This outcome matches long-term May climatology for the region, where nighttime radiative cooling is limited by high humidity and the urban heat island, keeping minima typically between 22–25°C. Traders appear to have anchored on the real-time observational data rather than model guidance, which showed little spread. While rare post-publication quality-control adjustments by the Observatory could theoretically shift the figure, such revisions have been negligible for daily temperature records in recent years.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,271End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThe market's near-certain pricing on 23°C as Hong Kong's lowest temperature for May 17 reflects official minimum readings from the Hong Kong Observatory's urban and airport stations, which recorded exactly 23.0°C overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and clear skies. This outcome matches long-term May climatology for the region, where nighttime radiative cooling is limited by high humidity and the urban heat island, keeping minima typically between 22–25°C. Traders appear to have anchored on the real-time observational data rather than model guidance, which showed little spread. While rare post-publication quality-control adjustments by the Observatory could theoretically shift the figure, such revisions have been negligible for daily temperature records in recent years.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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