Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 21%
68-69°F 10.6%
62-63°F 2.9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
21%
66-67°F
34%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
3%
72°F or higher
2%
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 21%
68-69°F 10.6%
62-63°F 2.9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
$2,067 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$70 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$108 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$102 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$480 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$405 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$105 Vol.
21%
66-67°F
$334 Vol.
34%
68-69°F
$486 Vol.
16%
70-71°F
$498 Vol.
3%
72°F or higher
$2,232 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,786End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,786End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGARecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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