Skip to main content
icon for Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?

Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?

icon for Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?

Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 17

12°C or higher 41.2%

8°C 26%

10°C 20%

7°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

12°C or higher 41.2%

8°C 26%

10°C 20%

7°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

2°C or below

$52 Vol.

1%

3°C

$47 Vol.

1%

4°C

$0 Vol.

3%

5°C

$0 Vol.

3%

6°C

$0 Vol.

3%

7°C

$0 Vol.

19%

8°C

$0 Vol.

26%

9°C

$19 Vol.

26%

10°C

$0 Vol.

20%

11°C

$0 Vol.

11%

12°C or higher

$78 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$196
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$196
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12°C or higher" at 41%, followed by "8°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?" is "12°C or higher" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "8°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.