The market's overwhelming consensus on 18°C reflects the latest observational data and forecast model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which show Tokyo's overnight minimum stabilizing near this value under typical mid-May spring conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. Recent upper-air analyses confirm a stable high-pressure system suppressing any rapid cooling, aligning with historical climatological baselines where May minima in the city average 14–18°C. Trader positioning incorporates the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble predictions, where small deviations from expected radiative cooling at night could still keep readings within the dominant bin. Any unforecasted increase in cloud cover or a shift in onshore flow before midnight represents the primary realistic scenario that might nudge the final low slightly higher or lower, though current model agreement keeps such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$15,272 Vol.
$15,272 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$15,272 Vol.
$15,272 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,394 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$823 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,186 Vol.
100%
19°C
$1,778 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,776 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$688 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$396 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming consensus on 18°C reflects the latest observational data and forecast model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which show Tokyo's overnight minimum stabilizing near this value under typical mid-May spring conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. Recent upper-air analyses confirm a stable high-pressure system suppressing any rapid cooling, aligning with historical climatological baselines where May minima in the city average 14–18°C. Trader positioning incorporates the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble predictions, where small deviations from expected radiative cooling at night could still keep readings within the dominant bin. Any unforecasted increase in cloud cover or a shift in onshore flow before midnight represents the primary realistic scenario that might nudge the final low slightly higher or lower, though current model agreement keeps such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$15,272End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming consensus on 18°C reflects the latest observational data and forecast model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which show Tokyo's overnight minimum stabilizing near this value under typical mid-May spring conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. Recent upper-air analyses confirm a stable high-pressure system suppressing any rapid cooling, aligning with historical climatological baselines where May minima in the city average 14–18°C. Trader positioning incorporates the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble predictions, where small deviations from expected radiative cooling at night could still keep readings within the dominant bin. Any unforecasted increase in cloud cover or a shift in onshore flow before midnight represents the primary realistic scenario that might nudge the final low slightly higher or lower, though current model agreement keeps such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,272End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThe market's overwhelming consensus on 18°C reflects the latest observational data and forecast model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which show Tokyo's overnight minimum stabilizing near this value under typical mid-May spring conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. Recent upper-air analyses confirm a stable high-pressure system suppressing any rapid cooling, aligning with historical climatological baselines where May minima in the city average 14–18°C. Trader positioning incorporates the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble predictions, where small deviations from expected radiative cooling at night could still keep readings within the dominant bin. Any unforecasted increase in cloud cover or a shift in onshore flow before midnight represents the primary realistic scenario that might nudge the final low slightly higher or lower, though current model agreement keeps such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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