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icon for MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Polymarket

$21,654 Vol.

Polymarket

$21,654 Vol.

Jake Auchincloss

$13,639 Vol.

Yes

Jason Poulos

$8,015 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the MA-04 Democratic primary due to his status as the three-term incumbent, extensive fundraising exceeding $3.6 million compared to challenger Jason Poulos’s roughly $68,000, and the withdrawal of other potential candidates including Ihssane Leckey and Christopher Boyd. The solidly Democratic district and typical low turnout in off-year primaries further consolidate support around the established officeholder with established donor networks and legislative record. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects these structural advantages in candidate viability and resources. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected late legal challenges to ballot access, significant health events, or rapid consolidation of remaining votes if turnout patterns deviate sharply from historical norms in the September 1 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,654
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 7:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the MA-04 Democratic primary due to his status as the three-term incumbent, extensive fundraising exceeding $3.6 million compared to challenger Jason Poulos’s roughly $68,000, and the withdrawal of other potential candidates including Ihssane Leckey and Christopher Boyd. The solidly Democratic district and typical low turnout in off-year primaries further consolidate support around the established officeholder with established donor networks and legislative record. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects these structural advantages in candidate viability and resources. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected late legal challenges to ballot access, significant health events, or rapid consolidation of remaining votes if turnout patterns deviate sharply from historical norms in the September 1 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,654
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 7:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jake Auchincloss" at 100%, followed by "Jason Poulos" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $21.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Jake Auchincloss" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jason Poulos" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.