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Elections·Primaries

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for New York Governor Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

Bruce Blakeman 94%

Pat Hahn 3.1%

Elise Stefanik 2.1%

Betsy McCaughey <1%

Polymarket

$90,314 Vol.

Bruce Blakeman 94%

Pat Hahn 3.1%

Elise Stefanik 2.1%

Betsy McCaughey <1%

Polymarket

$90,314 Vol.

Bruce Blakeman

$12,749 Vol.

94%

Pat Hahn

$2,865 Vol.

3%

Elise Stefanik

$11,733 Vol.

2%

Betsy McCaughey

$21,886 Vol.

1%

David Tulley

$41,081 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Bruce Blakeman's 93.5% implied probability as frontrunner in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary on June 23 stems from his unchallenged state GOP convention endorsement in February 2026, followed by Conservative Party nomination, securing party infrastructure, endorsements, and funds for the incumbent Nassau County executive.** Obscure petition-filed challengers—retired state worker Pat Hahn (13.3%), cannabis shop owner David Tulley (0.4%), former Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey (0.5%), and U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (2.1%, withdrawn)—lack comparable name recognition, organization, or resources, as early polls showed Stefanik leading before her exit. With no major developments in the past 30 days beyond Blakeman's upstate campaigning and April 100-day plan, trader consensus reflects his lock on the nomination. Late scandals, ballot access disputes, or outsider turnout surges could disrupt this, though structural advantages make them unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$90,314
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Bruce Blakeman's 93.5% implied probability as frontrunner in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary on June 23 stems from his unchallenged state GOP convention endorsement in February 2026, followed by Conservative Party nomination, securing party infrastructure, endorsements, and funds for the incumbent Nassau County executive.** Obscure petition-filed challengers—retired state worker Pat Hahn (13.3%), cannabis shop owner David Tulley (0.4%), former Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey (0.5%), and U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (2.1%, withdrawn)—lack comparable name recognition, organization, or resources, as early polls showed Stefanik leading before her exit. With no major developments in the past 30 days beyond Blakeman's upstate campaigning and April 100-day plan, trader consensus reflects his lock on the nomination. Late scandals, ballot access disputes, or outsider turnout surges could disrupt this, though structural advantages make them unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$90,314
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bruce Blakeman" at 94%, followed by "Pat Hahn" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $90.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Bruce Blakeman" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pat Hahn" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.