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icon for Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
Politics·France

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

icon for Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
Politics·France

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Raphael Glucksmann 73%

Olivier Faure 20%

Segolene Royal 3.2%

Jérôme Guedj 2.1%

Polymarket

$52,079 Vol.

Raphael Glucksmann 73%

Olivier Faure 20%

Segolene Royal 3.2%

Jérôme Guedj 2.1%

Polymarket

$52,079 Vol.

icon for Raphael Glucksmann

Raphael Glucksmann

$21,115 Vol.

73%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$3,639 Vol.

20%

icon for Segolene Royal

Segolene Royal

$2,062 Vol.

3%

icon for Jérôme Guedj

Jérôme Guedj

$1,079 Vol.

2%

icon for Boris Vallaud

Boris Vallaud

$12,311 Vol.

1%

icon for Francois Hollande

Francois Hollande

$4,942 Vol.

1%

icon for Philippe Brun

Philippe Brun

$3,318 Vol.

1%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$1,070 Vol.

1%

icon for Karim Bouamrane

Karim Bouamrane

$1,402 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$1,141 Vol.

<1%

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.**Raphael Glucksmann holds a clear lead in the Socialist Party's closed presidential primary, scheduled for October 9–10 and 16–17, 2026, as traders price his nomination prospects highest ahead of the 2027 French presidential election.** His late-August announcement of a bid under the Place Publique banner, combined with strong polling among center-left voters and endorsements from prominent Socialists, positioned him as the early favorite for the social-democratic nomination. Olivier Faure's subsequent entry as party first secretary introduced a direct contest, yet reporting continues to frame Glucksmann as the frontrunner with broader appeal against far-right challengers. Other declared participants, including Ségolène Royal, Jérôme Guedj, and Emmanuel Maurel, trail in visibility and support. The exclusion of Philippe Brun over unresolved allegations further narrowed the field. The upcoming member vote remains the decisive near-term catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$52,079
End Date
Apr 17, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.**Raphael Glucksmann holds a clear lead in the Socialist Party's closed presidential primary, scheduled for October 9–10 and 16–17, 2026, as traders price his nomination prospects highest ahead of the 2027 French presidential election.** His late-August announcement of a bid under the Place Publique banner, combined with strong polling among center-left voters and endorsements from prominent Socialists, positioned him as the early favorite for the social-democratic nomination. Olivier Faure's subsequent entry as party first secretary introduced a direct contest, yet reporting continues to frame Glucksmann as the frontrunner with broader appeal against far-right challengers. Other declared participants, including Ségolène Royal, Jérôme Guedj, and Emmanuel Maurel, trail in visibility and support. The exclusion of Philippe Brun over unresolved allegations further narrowed the field. The upcoming member vote remains the decisive near-term catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$52,079
End Date
Apr 17, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?

88%
icon for Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

71%
icon for Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

35%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Raphael Glucksmann" at 73%, followed by "Olivier Faure" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" has generated $52.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" is "Raphael Glucksmann" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Olivier Faure" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.