**Raphaël Glucksmann leads the Socialist Party primary market at 74.5% because he announced his candidacy in late August 2026 and quickly emerged as the frontrunner in the closed primary organized by the Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and allies.** The two-round vote is set for 9–10 and 16–17 October, with Glucksmann positioned as the strongest national performer among social-democratic contenders due to his pro-European profile and prior European election results. Olivier Faure, the PS first secretary who entered the race at the end of August, sits at 19.5% after internal party debates favored a member-based primary over a broader open contest. Lower-priced figures such as Ségolène Royal, Jérôme Guedj, and others reflect limited expected support in the restricted electorate. Recent exclusions, including Philippe Brun over allegations, have narrowed the field further, while the tight timeline before the primary has concentrated trader focus on Glucksmann’s organizational and polling advantages within the center-left bloc.