Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

icon for South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Darline Graham Nordone 100.0%

Nancy Mace <1%

Joe Wilson <1%

Mark Lynch <1%

Polymarket

$4,507,013 Vol.

Darline Graham Nordone 100.0%

Nancy Mace <1%

Joe Wilson <1%

Mark Lynch <1%

Polymarket

$4,507,013 Vol.

icon for Nancy Mace

Nancy Mace

$12,262 Vol.

No

icon for Joe Wilson

Joe Wilson

$3,953 Vol.

No

icon for Mark Lynch

Mark Lynch

$26,818 Vol.

No

icon for Paul Dans

Paul Dans

$1,237 Vol.

No

icon for Ralph Norman

Ralph Norman

$1,322,261 Vol.

No

icon for William Timmons

William Timmons

$976 Vol.

No

icon for Russell Fry

Russell Fry

$287,283 Vol.

No

icon for Sheri Biggs

Sheri Biggs

$1,205 Vol.

No

icon for Pamela Evette

Pamela Evette

$21,356 Vol.

No

icon for André Bauer

André Bauer

$1,244 Vol.

No

icon for Alan Wilson

Alan Wilson

$564 Vol.

No

icon for Scott Bessent

Scott Bessent

$2,649 Vol.

No

icon for Trey Gowdy

Trey Gowdy

$8,363 Vol.

No

icon for Darline Graham Nordone

Darline Graham Nordone

$2,445,817 Vol.

Yes

icon for Mark Sanford

Mark Sanford

$371,025 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary market due to her appointment as interim senator following her brother Lindsey Graham’s death in July 2026, combined with strong backing from President Trump and major spending by aligned super PACs. She advanced from the August 11 primary and secured the nomination in the August 25 runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, leveraging incumbency advantages, high name recognition, and endorsements from figures including Gov. Henry McMaster and Sen. Tim Scott in a state where Republicans have dominated Senate races. The compressed timeline limited challengers’ ability to build momentum. While the outcome is now effectively settled, late vote certification issues, recounts, or unforeseen eligibility challenges tied to party rules could theoretically alter final results before market resolution.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.

If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.

If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,507,013
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary market due to her appointment as interim senator following her brother Lindsey Graham’s death in July 2026, combined with strong backing from President Trump and major spending by aligned super PACs. She advanced from the August 11 primary and secured the nomination in the August 25 runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, leveraging incumbency advantages, high name recognition, and endorsements from figures including Gov. Henry McMaster and Sen. Tim Scott in a state where Republicans have dominated Senate races. The compressed timeline limited challengers’ ability to build momentum. While the outcome is now effectively settled, late vote certification issues, recounts, or unforeseen eligibility challenges tied to party rules could theoretically alter final results before market resolution.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.

If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.

If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,507,013
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Related

icon for Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

87%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,800,000 and 2,000,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,800,000 and 2,000,000?

49%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?

96%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Darline Graham Nordone" at 100%, followed by "Nancy Mace" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" has generated $4.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" is "Darline Graham Nordone" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nancy Mace" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.