Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability against Chile declaring a state of siege by June 30, driven by sustained political stability under President José Antonio Kast, who took office March 11, 2026, with promises of tough-on-crime and immigration policies managed through standard law enforcement rather than constitutional extremes. No grave internal perturbations—such as the severe unrest seen in past Mapuche conflicts or 2019 protests—have emerged in the past 30 days; recent student demonstrations and May Day clashes in Santiago were contained by police water cannons without escalation. The estado de sitio, which suspends civil liberties and deploys military for existential threats, remains unwarranted absent sudden triggers like widespread riots, terrorism, or uncontrollable violence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedState of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
$52,760 Vol.
$52,760 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$52,760 Vol.
$52,760 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability against Chile declaring a state of siege by June 30, driven by sustained political stability under President José Antonio Kast, who took office March 11, 2026, with promises of tough-on-crime and immigration policies managed through standard law enforcement rather than constitutional extremes. No grave internal perturbations—such as the severe unrest seen in past Mapuche conflicts or 2019 protests—have emerged in the past 30 days; recent student demonstrations and May Day clashes in Santiago were contained by police water cannons without escalation. The estado de sitio, which suspends civil liberties and deploys military for existential threats, remains unwarranted absent sudden triggers like widespread riots, terrorism, or uncontrollable violence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$52,760End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability against Chile declaring a state of siege by June 30, driven by sustained political stability under President José Antonio Kast, who took office March 11, 2026, with promises of tough-on-crime and immigration policies managed through standard law enforcement rather than constitutional extremes. No grave internal perturbations—such as the severe unrest seen in past Mapuche conflicts or 2019 protests—have emerged in the past 30 days; recent student demonstrations and May Day clashes in Santiago were contained by police water cannons without escalation. The estado de sitio, which suspends civil liberties and deploys military for existential threats, remains unwarranted absent sudden triggers like widespread riots, terrorism, or uncontrollable violence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,760End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability against Chile declaring a state of siege by June 30, driven by sustained political stability under President José Antonio Kast, who took office March 11, 2026, with promises of tough-on-crime and immigration policies managed through standard law enforcement rather than constitutional extremes. No grave internal perturbations—such as the severe unrest seen in past Mapuche conflicts or 2019 protests—have emerged in the past 30 days; recent student demonstrations and May Day clashes in Santiago were contained by police water cannons without escalation. The estado de sitio, which suspends civil liberties and deploys military for existential threats, remains unwarranted absent sudden triggers like widespread riots, terrorism, or uncontrollable violence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions