Sweden's September 13, 2026, parliamentary election produced a clear margin in which Moderaterna secured a larger vote share than Sverigedemokraterna, aligning with the market's near-certain pricing of the M outcome. Pre-election polling aggregates showed SD holding a modest lead over M through much of the campaign, yet final tallies reflected a reversal driven by bloc dynamics within the Tidö parties, differential turnout patterns, and late-deciding voters. With over 99 percent of ballots counted and the gap exceeding several percentage points, trader consensus rests on certified results from the Swedish Election Authority rather than projections. Remaining uncertainties center on a small number of outstanding overseas and late-arriving ballots plus any formal challenges, though these are unlikely to close the established difference.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSD
<1% chance
$36,448 Vol.
$36,448 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
SD
<1% chance
$36,448 Vol.
$36,448 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden's September 13, 2026, parliamentary election produced a clear margin in which Moderaterna secured a larger vote share than Sverigedemokraterna, aligning with the market's near-certain pricing of the M outcome. Pre-election polling aggregates showed SD holding a modest lead over M through much of the campaign, yet final tallies reflected a reversal driven by bloc dynamics within the Tidö parties, differential turnout patterns, and late-deciding voters. With over 99 percent of ballots counted and the gap exceeding several percentage points, trader consensus rests on certified results from the Swedish Election Authority rather than projections. Remaining uncertainties center on a small number of outstanding overseas and late-arriving ballots plus any formal challenges, though these are unlikely to close the established difference.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ET
Volume
$36,448End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: M
No dispute
Final outcome: M
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden's September 13, 2026, parliamentary election produced a clear margin in which Moderaterna secured a larger vote share than Sverigedemokraterna, aligning with the market's near-certain pricing of the M outcome. Pre-election polling aggregates showed SD holding a modest lead over M through much of the campaign, yet final tallies reflected a reversal driven by bloc dynamics within the Tidö parties, differential turnout patterns, and late-deciding voters. With over 99 percent of ballots counted and the gap exceeding several percentage points, trader consensus rests on certified results from the Swedish Election Authority rather than projections. Remaining uncertainties center on a small number of outstanding overseas and late-arriving ballots plus any formal challenges, though these are unlikely to close the established difference.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$36,448End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: M
No dispute
Final outcome: M
Sweden's September 13, 2026, parliamentary election produced a clear margin in which Moderaterna secured a larger vote share than Sverigedemokraterna, aligning with the market's near-certain pricing of the M outcome. Pre-election polling aggregates showed SD holding a modest lead over M through much of the campaign, yet final tallies reflected a reversal driven by bloc dynamics within the Tidö parties, differential turnout patterns, and late-deciding voters. With over 99 percent of ballots counted and the gap exceeding several percentage points, trader consensus rests on certified results from the Swedish Election Authority rather than projections. Remaining uncertainties center on a small number of outstanding overseas and late-arriving ballots plus any formal challenges, though these are unlikely to close the established difference.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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