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icon for Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow 89%

Brad Bradford 12%

Ana Bailão <1%

Michael Ford <1%

Polymarket

$174,645 Vol.

Olivia Chow 89%

Brad Bradford 12%

Ana Bailão <1%

Michael Ford <1%

Polymarket

$174,645 Vol.

icon for Olivia Chow

Olivia Chow

$42,209 Vol.

89%

icon for Brad Bradford

Brad Bradford

$41,970 Vol.

12%

icon for Ana Bailão

Ana Bailão

$12,716 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michael Ford

Michael Ford

$16,169 Vol.

<1%

icon for Anthony Furey

Anthony Furey

$12,977 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marco Mendicino

Marco Mendicino

$18,561 Vol.

<1%

icon for John Tory

John Tory

$17,197 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kevin Clarke

Kevin Clarke

$12,847 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Olivia Chow, the incumbent Toronto mayor seeking her first full term after the 2023 by-election, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market due to consistent polling leads over main challenger Brad Bradford and a fragmented field of other candidates. Recent surveys from Mainstreet Research and Liaison Strategies show her support in the mid-to-high 40s percent range against Bradford’s low-to-mid 30s, with the gap narrowing slightly amid voter focus on public safety, affordability, and housing ahead of the October 26 vote. September debates and Chow’s announcements on youth violence prevention programs have kept her positioned as the frontrunner, while low single-digit support for figures like Chris Alexander and others limits viable alternatives. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency and name recognition heavily against the remaining campaign window.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$174,645
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Olivia Chow, the incumbent Toronto mayor seeking her first full term after the 2023 by-election, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market due to consistent polling leads over main challenger Brad Bradford and a fragmented field of other candidates. Recent surveys from Mainstreet Research and Liaison Strategies show her support in the mid-to-high 40s percent range against Bradford’s low-to-mid 30s, with the gap narrowing slightly amid voter focus on public safety, affordability, and housing ahead of the October 26 vote. September debates and Chow’s announcements on youth violence prevention programs have kept her positioned as the frontrunner, while low single-digit support for figures like Chris Alexander and others limits viable alternatives. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency and name recognition heavily against the remaining campaign window.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$174,645
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Olivia Chow" at 89%, followed by "Brad Bradford" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" has generated $174.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is "Olivia Chow" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brad Bradford" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.