Republican congressional majorities, particularly in the House, form the primary barrier to early removal through impeachment or sustained 25th Amendment invocation. On September 15, 2026, lawmakers tabled a Democratic impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support. No credible 25th Amendment process has advanced despite isolated public commentary, and the cabinet remains aligned with President Trump. Ongoing foreign policy engagement, including Iran-related developments, and domestic legal or political disputes have produced no resignation signals or incapacity findings. Traders price the 94.5% No outcome on these structural and procedural hurdles with only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$11,825,744 Vol.
$11,825,744 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$11,825,744 Vol.
$11,825,744 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican congressional majorities, particularly in the House, form the primary barrier to early removal through impeachment or sustained 25th Amendment invocation. On September 15, 2026, lawmakers tabled a Democratic impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support. No credible 25th Amendment process has advanced despite isolated public commentary, and the cabinet remains aligned with President Trump. Ongoing foreign policy engagement, including Iran-related developments, and domestic legal or political disputes have produced no resignation signals or incapacity findings. Traders price the 94.5% No outcome on these structural and procedural hurdles with only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,825,744End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican congressional majorities, particularly in the House, form the primary barrier to early removal through impeachment or sustained 25th Amendment invocation. On September 15, 2026, lawmakers tabled a Democratic impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support. No credible 25th Amendment process has advanced despite isolated public commentary, and the cabinet remains aligned with President Trump. Ongoing foreign policy engagement, including Iran-related developments, and domestic legal or political disputes have produced no resignation signals or incapacity findings. Traders price the 94.5% No outcome on these structural and procedural hurdles with only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,825,744End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican congressional majorities, particularly in the House, form the primary barrier to early removal through impeachment or sustained 25th Amendment invocation. On September 15, 2026, lawmakers tabled a Democratic impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support. No credible 25th Amendment process has advanced despite isolated public commentary, and the cabinet remains aligned with President Trump. Ongoing foreign policy engagement, including Iran-related developments, and domestic legal or political disputes have produced no resignation signals or incapacity findings. Traders price the 94.5% No outcome on these structural and procedural hurdles with only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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