The high implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through at least January 2027 reflects the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction on impeachment and the vice presidential and cabinet majorities required to invoke the 25th Amendment. Recent April 2026 statements on Iran prompted renewed Democratic calls for impeachment resolutions and fitness reviews, alongside scattered bipartisan commentary on health and governance capacity, yet no committee action or floor votes have advanced in the Republican-led House. White House statements continue to frame such concerns as partisan, while historical patterns show low success rates for mid-term removals absent broad bipartisan consensus. Scheduled events through mid-2026, including budget deadlines and foreign policy reviews, have so far produced no triggers sufficient to shift trader assessments of continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$8,522,556 Vol.
$8,522,556 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$8,522,556 Vol.
$8,522,556 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through at least January 2027 reflects the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction on impeachment and the vice presidential and cabinet majorities required to invoke the 25th Amendment. Recent April 2026 statements on Iran prompted renewed Democratic calls for impeachment resolutions and fitness reviews, alongside scattered bipartisan commentary on health and governance capacity, yet no committee action or floor votes have advanced in the Republican-led House. White House statements continue to frame such concerns as partisan, while historical patterns show low success rates for mid-term removals absent broad bipartisan consensus. Scheduled events through mid-2026, including budget deadlines and foreign policy reviews, have so far produced no triggers sufficient to shift trader assessments of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,522,556End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through at least January 2027 reflects the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction on impeachment and the vice presidential and cabinet majorities required to invoke the 25th Amendment. Recent April 2026 statements on Iran prompted renewed Democratic calls for impeachment resolutions and fitness reviews, alongside scattered bipartisan commentary on health and governance capacity, yet no committee action or floor votes have advanced in the Republican-led House. White House statements continue to frame such concerns as partisan, while historical patterns show low success rates for mid-term removals absent broad bipartisan consensus. Scheduled events through mid-2026, including budget deadlines and foreign policy reviews, have so far produced no triggers sufficient to shift trader assessments of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,522,556End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through at least January 2027 reflects the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction on impeachment and the vice presidential and cabinet majorities required to invoke the 25th Amendment. Recent April 2026 statements on Iran prompted renewed Democratic calls for impeachment resolutions and fitness reviews, alongside scattered bipartisan commentary on health and governance capacity, yet no committee action or floor votes have advanced in the Republican-led House. White House statements continue to frame such concerns as partisan, while historical patterns show low success rates for mid-term removals absent broad bipartisan consensus. Scheduled events through mid-2026, including budget deadlines and foreign policy reviews, have so far produced no triggers sufficient to shift trader assessments of continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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