Republican majorities in Congress have blocked all Democratic efforts to remove President Trump through impeachment or the 25th Amendment, despite calls from dozens of House members following his April 2026 Iran actions. These procedural realities, combined with Trump's status as the duly elected incumbent serving a full four-year term, anchor trader consensus that he will remain in office through at least early 2027. Recent polling shows his approval ratings at second-term lows near 36 percent, yet no scheduled events, legal proceedings, or health developments within the next eight months appear positioned to alter that trajectory. Midterm results in November 2026 could shift legislative control, but historical patterns and current vote margins suggest limited immediate impact on removal odds before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$8,522,546 Vol.
$8,522,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$8,522,546 Vol.
$8,522,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have blocked all Democratic efforts to remove President Trump through impeachment or the 25th Amendment, despite calls from dozens of House members following his April 2026 Iran actions. These procedural realities, combined with Trump's status as the duly elected incumbent serving a full four-year term, anchor trader consensus that he will remain in office through at least early 2027. Recent polling shows his approval ratings at second-term lows near 36 percent, yet no scheduled events, legal proceedings, or health developments within the next eight months appear positioned to alter that trajectory. Midterm results in November 2026 could shift legislative control, but historical patterns and current vote margins suggest limited immediate impact on removal odds before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,522,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have blocked all Democratic efforts to remove President Trump through impeachment or the 25th Amendment, despite calls from dozens of House members following his April 2026 Iran actions. These procedural realities, combined with Trump's status as the duly elected incumbent serving a full four-year term, anchor trader consensus that he will remain in office through at least early 2027. Recent polling shows his approval ratings at second-term lows near 36 percent, yet no scheduled events, legal proceedings, or health developments within the next eight months appear positioned to alter that trajectory. Midterm results in November 2026 could shift legislative control, but historical patterns and current vote margins suggest limited immediate impact on removal odds before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,522,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in Congress have blocked all Democratic efforts to remove President Trump through impeachment or the 25th Amendment, despite calls from dozens of House members following his April 2026 Iran actions. These procedural realities, combined with Trump's status as the duly elected incumbent serving a full four-year term, anchor trader consensus that he will remain in office through at least early 2027. Recent polling shows his approval ratings at second-term lows near 36 percent, yet no scheduled events, legal proceedings, or health developments within the next eight months appear positioned to alter that trajectory. Midterm results in November 2026 could shift legislative control, but historical patterns and current vote margins suggest limited immediate impact on removal odds before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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