Recent indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan have kept prospects for a US-Iran nuclear agreement alive, with traders pricing a 58.5 percent chance of resolution before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in early 2026 and subsequent domestic protests that prompted Tehran to resume talks in February, Washington advanced a one-page framework memorandum in early May focused on ending the Gulf conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and providing sanctions relief while deferring detailed enrichment limits. Iranian officials are reviewing the proposal amid ongoing disputes over highly enriched uranium stockpiles and verification timelines, yet US officials including Vice President Vance have signaled continued progress toward an interim deal. These diplomatic steps, set against mutual distrust and regional escalation risks, underpin the current market consensus without resolving core nuclear sticking points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,328,822 Vol.
$1,328,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$1,328,822 Vol.
$1,328,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan have kept prospects for a US-Iran nuclear agreement alive, with traders pricing a 58.5 percent chance of resolution before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in early 2026 and subsequent domestic protests that prompted Tehran to resume talks in February, Washington advanced a one-page framework memorandum in early May focused on ending the Gulf conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and providing sanctions relief while deferring detailed enrichment limits. Iranian officials are reviewing the proposal amid ongoing disputes over highly enriched uranium stockpiles and verification timelines, yet US officials including Vice President Vance have signaled continued progress toward an interim deal. These diplomatic steps, set against mutual distrust and regional escalation risks, underpin the current market consensus without resolving core nuclear sticking points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,328,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan have kept prospects for a US-Iran nuclear agreement alive, with traders pricing a 58.5 percent chance of resolution before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in early 2026 and subsequent domestic protests that prompted Tehran to resume talks in February, Washington advanced a one-page framework memorandum in early May focused on ending the Gulf conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and providing sanctions relief while deferring detailed enrichment limits. Iranian officials are reviewing the proposal amid ongoing disputes over highly enriched uranium stockpiles and verification timelines, yet US officials including Vice President Vance have signaled continued progress toward an interim deal. These diplomatic steps, set against mutual distrust and regional escalation risks, underpin the current market consensus without resolving core nuclear sticking points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,328,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan have kept prospects for a US-Iran nuclear agreement alive, with traders pricing a 58.5 percent chance of resolution before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in early 2026 and subsequent domestic protests that prompted Tehran to resume talks in February, Washington advanced a one-page framework memorandum in early May focused on ending the Gulf conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and providing sanctions relief while deferring detailed enrichment limits. Iranian officials are reviewing the proposal amid ongoing disputes over highly enriched uranium stockpiles and verification timelines, yet US officials including Vice President Vance have signaled continued progress toward an interim deal. These diplomatic steps, set against mutual distrust and regional escalation risks, underpin the current market consensus without resolving core nuclear sticking points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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