Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Shipping data from mid-May 2026 shows daily throughput at just 5-10% of the pre-war average of about 60 vessels, with only eight ships recorded in the most recent 24-hour period amid selective Iranian approvals and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. This restricted access has elevated marine insurance premiums, forced widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and contributed to refined-product shortages in Asia while supporting elevated crude benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether incremental openings or further de-escalation by month-end could lift volumes before May 31, with upcoming U.S. policy signals and any reported ceasefire progress likely to influence near-term probability assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$486,459 Vol.
May 31, 2026
20+
45%
40+
10%
60+
6%
80+
3%
$486,459 Vol.
20+
$114,889 Vol.
45%
40+
$122,848 Vol.
10%
60+
$68,431 Vol.
6%
80+
$182,038 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Shipping data from mid-May 2026 shows daily throughput at just 5-10% of the pre-war average of about 60 vessels, with only eight ships recorded in the most recent 24-hour period amid selective Iranian approvals and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. This restricted access has elevated marine insurance premiums, forced widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and contributed to refined-product shortages in Asia while supporting elevated crude benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether incremental openings or further de-escalation by month-end could lift volumes before May 31, with upcoming U.S. policy signals and any reported ceasefire progress likely to influence near-term probability assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$486,459End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Shipping data from mid-May 2026 shows daily throughput at just 5-10% of the pre-war average of about 60 vessels, with only eight ships recorded in the most recent 24-hour period amid selective Iranian approvals and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. This restricted access has elevated marine insurance premiums, forced widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and contributed to refined-product shortages in Asia while supporting elevated crude benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether incremental openings or further de-escalation by month-end could lift volumes before May 31, with upcoming U.S. policy signals and any reported ceasefire progress likely to influence near-term probability assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$486,459End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Shipping data from mid-May 2026 shows daily throughput at just 5-10% of the pre-war average of about 60 vessels, with only eight ships recorded in the most recent 24-hour period amid selective Iranian approvals and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. This restricted access has elevated marine insurance premiums, forced widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and contributed to refined-product shortages in Asia while supporting elevated crude benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether incremental openings or further de-escalation by month-end could lift volumes before May 31, with upcoming U.S. policy signals and any reported ceasefire progress likely to influence near-term probability assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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