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icon for York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner

Susan Lahey 100.0%

Naomi Davison <1%

Bobby Nikmard <1%

Matt Pearce <1%

Polymarket

$10,949 Vol.

Susan Lahey 100.0%

Naomi Davison <1%

Bobby Nikmard <1%

Matt Pearce <1%

Polymarket

$10,949 Vol.

icon for Susan Lahey

Susan Lahey

$6,873 Vol.

Yes

icon for Naomi Davison

Naomi Davison

$1,057 Vol.

No

icon for Bobby Nikmard

Bobby Nikmard

$641 Vol.

No

icon for Matt Pearce

Matt Pearce

$506 Vol.

No

icon for David Ghobrial

David Ghobrial

$587 Vol.

No

icon for Sean Conroy

Sean Conroy

$639 Vol.

No

icon for Gerald Auger

Gerald Auger

$646 Vol.

No

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Susan Lahey secured the Progressive Conservative nomination for the York—Simcoe provincial by-election after Caroline Mulroney resigned in June 2026, positioning her to defend a riding held by the party since its creation. As a local East Gwillimbury councillor and small business owner, Lahey emphasized affordability, infrastructure, and growth issues that aligned with PC strengths in the area. The September 3 vote confirmed her victory with 49.81% against the Liberal candidate's 38.76%, reflecting consistent party support and limited shifts from minor-party contenders. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects the decisive result and absence of close margins or disputes. Recounts or eligibility challenges remain possible but improbable given the clear outcome and standard certification process.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$10,949
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Susan Lahey secured the Progressive Conservative nomination for the York—Simcoe provincial by-election after Caroline Mulroney resigned in June 2026, positioning her to defend a riding held by the party since its creation. As a local East Gwillimbury councillor and small business owner, Lahey emphasized affordability, infrastructure, and growth issues that aligned with PC strengths in the area. The September 3 vote confirmed her victory with 49.81% against the Liberal candidate's 38.76%, reflecting consistent party support and limited shifts from minor-party contenders. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects the decisive result and absence of close margins or disputes. Recounts or eligibility challenges remain possible but improbable given the clear outcome and standard certification process.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$10,949
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Susan Lahey" at 100%, followed by "Naomi Davison" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner" has generated $10.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Susan Lahey" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Naomi Davison" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.