Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois holds a clear lead in recent polling aggregates ahead of the October 5 provincial election, positioning his party for a likely plurality of seats in the National Assembly. Voter desire for change after the Coalition Avenir Québec’s extended tenure under François Legault has boosted the PQ among francophone voters, where Plamondon’s emphasis on sovereignty, reduced bureaucracy, and economic nationalism aligns with prevailing sentiment. Christine Fréchette, who became CAQ leader and premier in April 2026, trails as the incumbent amid ongoing campaign attacks over spending and federal relations. Seat projections indicate a probable PQ minority government, which would install Plamondon as premier absent a successful opposition coalition. Other candidates, including Charles Milliard of the Liberals and Éric Duhaime of the Conservatives, remain distant in both vote and seat forecasts.