Republican control of the House with a narrow majority through the remainder of 2026 creates the primary structural barrier to impeachment, as articles require a simple majority vote and no bipartisan coalition has emerged to advance any resolution. Recent Democratic filings, such as Rep. Al Green’s H.Res. 1486 targeting immigration enforcement practices, have been referred to committee without floor action or leadership support, consistent with prior failed attempts during the term. Midterm elections in November could shift chamber control starting in 2027, but that timeline leaves minimal window before year-end. Trader pricing at 97.6% for no impeachment reflects this institutional reality and historical patterns of same-party reluctance. Rare scenarios capable of altering the outcome include a sudden erosion of Republican cohesion over a major controversy or unforeseen bipartisan vote before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$1,011,405 Vol.
$1,011,405 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.25%を獲得
はい
2% 確率
$1,011,405 Vol.
$1,011,405 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.25%を獲得
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House with a narrow majority through the remainder of 2026 creates the primary structural barrier to impeachment, as articles require a simple majority vote and no bipartisan coalition has emerged to advance any resolution. Recent Democratic filings, such as Rep. Al Green’s H.Res. 1486 targeting immigration enforcement practices, have been referred to committee without floor action or leadership support, consistent with prior failed attempts during the term. Midterm elections in November could shift chamber control starting in 2027, but that timeline leaves minimal window before year-end. Trader pricing at 97.6% for no impeachment reflects this institutional reality and historical patterns of same-party reluctance. Rare scenarios capable of altering the outcome include a sudden erosion of Republican cohesion over a major controversy or unforeseen bipartisan vote before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
音量
$1,011,405終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House with a narrow majority through the remainder of 2026 creates the primary structural barrier to impeachment, as articles require a simple majority vote and no bipartisan coalition has emerged to advance any resolution. Recent Democratic filings, such as Rep. Al Green’s H.Res. 1486 targeting immigration enforcement practices, have been referred to committee without floor action or leadership support, consistent with prior failed attempts during the term. Midterm elections in November could shift chamber control starting in 2027, but that timeline leaves minimal window before year-end. Trader pricing at 97.6% for no impeachment reflects this institutional reality and historical patterns of same-party reluctance. Rare scenarios capable of altering the outcome include a sudden erosion of Republican cohesion over a major controversy or unforeseen bipartisan vote before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
音量
$1,011,421終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...Republican control of the House with a narrow majority through the remainder of 2026 creates the primary structural barrier to impeachment, as articles require a simple majority vote and no bipartisan coalition has emerged to advance any resolution. Recent Democratic filings, such as Rep. Al Green’s H.Res. 1486 targeting immigration enforcement practices, have been referred to committee without floor action or leadership support, consistent with prior failed attempts during the term. Midterm elections in November could shift chamber control starting in 2027, but that timeline leaves minimal window before year-end. Trader pricing at 97.6% for no impeachment reflects this institutional reality and historical patterns of same-party reluctance. Rare scenarios capable of altering the outcome include a sudden erosion of Republican cohesion over a major controversy or unforeseen bipartisan vote before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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