Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs updated within the past 24 hours, points to a daytime maximum near 15–16 °C for Munich under stable high-pressure conditions and moderate northwesterly flow. These temperatures align closely with mid-May climatological normals of 16–18 °C while reflecting a slight cool anomaly from lingering Atlantic moisture. Trader positioning at 49 % for 16 °C and 28.5 % for 15 °C incorporates both the central forecast track and ensemble spread that keeps adjacent values competitive until final observations at 18:00 UTC. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky intensification is expected before the daily peak window closes, keeping the probability-weighted range tightly clustered around these two outcomes.