David Flippo holds a 61% implied probability in trader consensus for the open Nevada 2nd Congressional District seat, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean and his primary victory with Trump endorsement, while Teresa Benitez-Thompson sits at 37.5% amid the November 3 general election. The race tightened after Flippo faced scrutiny over military service claims and campaign finance disclosures, prompting heavy outside spending by Republican groups and the DCCC’s addition of Benitez-Thompson to its Red to Blue program. Retiring Republican incumbent Mark Amodei’s refusal to endorse Flippo and reported support for independent Lynn Chapman have further complicated the contest in a district where Republicans hold a voter registration edge. Recent early voting trends and limited late polling underscore the narrow margin driven by candidate-specific factors rather than broad partisan shifts.