New York’s 12th Congressional District, an open seat after longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement, remains one of the most reliably Democratic districts nationwide with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30. Recent polling for the June 23 Democratic primary shows a competitive field led by candidates including Alex Bores, Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all maintain strong progressive profiles that align with the district’s Manhattan voter base. Forecasters across Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican contender in the November 3, 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win captures this structural advantage, with only an unprecedented national Republican wave or late primary surprise capable of altering the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,171 交易量
$17,171 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,171 交易量
$17,171 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,681 交易量
94%
共和党
$2,490 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District, an open seat after longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement, remains one of the most reliably Democratic districts nationwide with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30. Recent polling for the June 23 Democratic primary shows a competitive field led by candidates including Alex Bores, Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all maintain strong progressive profiles that align with the district’s Manhattan voter base. Forecasters across Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican contender in the November 3, 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win captures this structural advantage, with only an unprecedented national Republican wave or late primary surprise capable of altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$17,171结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District, an open seat after longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement, remains one of the most reliably Democratic districts nationwide with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30. Recent polling for the June 23 Democratic primary shows a competitive field led by candidates including Alex Bores, Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all maintain strong progressive profiles that align with the district’s Manhattan voter base. Forecasters across Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican contender in the November 3, 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win captures this structural advantage, with only an unprecedented national Republican wave or late primary surprise capable of altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,171结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th Congressional District, an open seat after longtime Democratic incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement, remains one of the most reliably Democratic districts nationwide with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30. Recent polling for the June 23 Democratic primary shows a competitive field led by candidates including Alex Bores, Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all maintain strong progressive profiles that align with the district’s Manhattan voter base. Forecasters across Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican contender in the November 3, 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win captures this structural advantage, with only an unprecedented national Republican wave or late primary surprise capable of altering the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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