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icon for NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

icon for NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Labour 0-5% 30%

National 0-5% 29%

Labour 10-15% 14%

Labour 5-10% 14%

Polymarket

$18,359 交易量

Labour 0-5% 30%

National 0-5% 29%

Labour 10-15% 14%

Labour 5-10% 14%

Polymarket

$18,359 交易量

icon for Labour 15%+

Labour 15%+

$643 交易量

3%

icon for Labour 10-15%

Labour 10-15%

$5,021 交易量

14%

icon for Labour 5-10%

Labour 5-10%

$719 交易量

14%

icon for Labour 0-5%

Labour 0-5%

$1,397 交易量

30%

icon for National 0-5%

National 0-5%

$2,426 交易量

29%

icon for National 5-10%

National 5-10%

$854 交易量

10%

icon for National 10%+

National 10%+

$6,906 交易量

6%

icon for 其他政党获胜

其他政党获胜

$393 交易量

<1%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.

This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.

If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
交易量
$18,359
结束日期
2026-11-07
市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.

This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.

If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
交易量
$18,359
结束日期
2026-11-07
市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Labour 0-5%",概率为 30%,其次是"National 0-5%",概率为 28%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 30¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 30%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?"已产生 $18.4K 的总交易量(自Apr 29, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?"的当前领先者是"Labour 0-5%",概率为 30%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 30%。紧随其后的结果是"National 0-5%",概率为 28%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。