Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$7,650End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,650End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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